In other words, expect posting to be light, possibly until Tuesday.

Happy New Years, everyone. Feel free to share your resolutions. I am especially interested in hearing about any resolutions from years past that you were able to keep– and any suggestions you might have for keeping a resolution.

See ya in 2006,

David Benzion

Kristen Mack of the Houston Chronicle has a fair and straightforward piece this morning on Dan Patrick’s official filing for the State Senate District 7 Republican primary.

I was a bit stunned, however, by the spin Nixon campaign spokesman Jim McGrath put on recent poll results showing Patrick kicking butt in the race so far:

Patrick recently released a poll of likely Republican primary voters that shows him earning 54 percent of the vote if the election were held today. Nixon had 10 percent, Hamric had 9 percent and Ellis garnered 7 percent among those polled.

The poll, commissioned by Patrick and conducted by the Colorado-based polling firm Vitale & Associates, was taken in early December.

Nixon spokesman Jim McGrath questions the results.

"He’s been on the air in the Houston market for years. Naturally he has a name ID advantage. We dispute that he has that level of support," McGrath said. "Name ID is one thing, support is another."

Nice bait and switch, Jim– but you’ve worked in politics long enough to know the difference between measuring "Name ID" and "Ballot Preference".

The former is simply a measure of whether or not a poll respondent has ever heard of a candidate, is frequently combined with an inquiry about perceptions of "favorability", and is typically measured with a question along the lines of:

"Now I am going to read you the names of candidates running for State Senate District 7. For each one, please tell me if you have heard of that candidate– and if so, whether or not your opinion of them is favorable or unfavorable."

"Ballot Preference" is when you ask people who they intend to vote for if the election were held today.

And that is precisely the question that produced the results (Patrick 54%, Undecided 20%, Nixon 10%, Hamric 9%, Ellis 7%) the Nixon campaign is trying to evade.

McGrath’s shell-game is particularly chutzpah-laden in that the poll in question actually included a question on name id alone– with the results as follows:

NOTE: Candidate — Name ID — Favorable — Unfavorable

Patrick  —  91% — 67% — 9%

  Nixon    —  72% — 32% — 11%

Hamric  —  53% — 25% — 4%

Ellis      —  67% — 25% — 8%

If McGrath wants to argue that Dan beat Nixon in name id or favorability (by +19 and +35 margins, for what it is worth) simply because he has been on the air for so long, fine– that is a worthy debate.

But to claim that Dan’s + 44-point lead over Nixon on ballot preference doesn’t measure Patrick’s actual support is to argue that Republican primary voters are too stupid to distinguish between being asked if they’ve ever heard of someone and if they intend to actually vote for them.

Perhaps McGrath was misquoted. Because I just find it hard to believe that either he or the Nixon campaign would be prepared to publicly take that position– even if it is the conventional wisdom among the special-interest lobbyists whose massive contributions are fueling their efforts.

————————————-

Full Disclosure: Although an employee of KSEV and a volunteer for the Dan Patrick for Senate Campaign, opinions expressed here should be assummed to reflect only those of their author, David Benzion. LoneStarTimes.com is a legally independent entity from KSEV, and is fully owned and operated by David Benzion.

Better late than never. (?)

UPDATED– Sorry about the brain-fart of a headline (originally "Thursday Open Comments Thread"). I blame it on the NyQuil taken last night to fight off my impending cold.

Per Dan Patrick, here is background info on the Christmas Eve fire that destroyed the Eagle Hollow Apartment Homes– and how you can lend a hand.

Numbers:

• Number of people affected- 37
• Number of children affected: 10 total, 9- children, 1 infant
• Number of adults: 25
• 2 young adults: 15, 17
• 12 Apartments destroyed by fire, 12 more were damaged
• 16 residents are living in vacant apartments without any salvaged belongings
• Ages of Children: 6 month old, 2, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 years old
• Ages of Adults: range from mid 20s to mid 50s.
• Two young adults: 15, 17 years old

Need:

• furniture for 16 units
• food
• clothing
• toiletries
• school supplies

Make Checks payable to:

Eagle Hollow Apartment Home Fund

Mail Checks to:    St. Marks Lutheran Church

1515 Hillendahl

Houston, TX 77055

Tommy’s the short-haired one.

BENZION RE-CAPTIONS

Tommy is the physically fit, sharply-dressed one.

BRAMANTI RESPONDS:

Hey jerkface, I’ve lost 64 pounds since that picture was taken!

I’ll be out of pocket for the next few days as my dad and I will be driving my younger brother up to Kentucky to begin his career in the U.S. Army. My younger brother Tommy was recently commissioned a 2nd Lieutenant in the U.S. Army after graduating from Notre Dame and the Fightin’ Irish Battalion. On January 2, he’ll report to Fort Knox, where he’ll learn the ins and outs of commanding a tank platoon at the Armor School.

On the way, we’ll see some of the natural beauty that only a road trip can offer, and some of the artificial beauty that only Caesars can offer.

Have a happy and safe New Year, and I’ll see you in 2006. In the meantime, I hope you’ll join me in congratulating and praying for my little brother, one of America’s finest.

I got an interesting piece of mail the other day — an invitation to witness the inauguration of our honorable mayor:

It was a very nice invitation, printed at taxpayer expense on fancy cream-colored paper, and stuffed in a fancy cream-colored envelope on which my name was misspelled. 

I think I’m gonna go to the inauguration, since I’m sure there will be enough cops around to deter muggers. But I have a very important question for you, beloved reader. Hypothetically, if I were to bring a big placard, what should it say? Leave your suggestions in the comments.

The Consigliere– who we here at LST do not know or have any connection to– has posted his insights on the entire field of Texas State Senate District 7 Republican candidates.

So as not to be accused of "selectively quoting" only the excerpts that make the candidate we support look good, we are re-producing The Consigliere’s blog-post here in full. (With minor editorial inserts added.)

BTW– Dan officially files for the race at 5:30 PM today– and you will then learn who his "surprise replacement" host will be, at least for the first few weeks of the campaign.

Be sure to be listening to KSEV 700 this afternoon!

Posted by The Consigliere on Monday, 12/26/05

If you put any stock in polls, pundits or the old gnawing feeling in the gut, there’s a political reality folks better come to grips with — Dan Patrick will be soon represent District 7 in the Texas Senate.

In an Oct. 26th posting titled Patrick grabs early edge in Senate race, The Consigliere predicted that the conservative radio talk show host and former television sports personality had the inside track to win the Republican nomination in SD7 and that he would likely be the person to replace State Sen. Jon Lindsay, who is retiring.

Nothing has happened to make us change our minds.

In fact, unless Patrick gets caught covered in body paint with a dead boy or live animal in a cheap motel after a long night of selling crack to orphans and performing abortions in church parking lots, he will soon be a senator. And, he will have gained the title without having to endure a run-off.

(Sorry if we went a tad far with that last point. Wanted to paint you a picture.)

We have to give credit to Patrick.

He’s run a smart campaign — a modern and sleek effort cloaked in folksy Reagan-like populism and imagery. (Forgive the cynicism. But we all know this was all planned.)

The strategy has been good. Message has been on target and he’s surrounded himself with some sharp folks. He’s kept his famous temper in check. He got out there before his opponents and, like him or hate him, he’s a gifted communicator. On that point, he’s also taken full and brilliant advantage of his time on the radio every day.

No doubt. Dan Patrick is running the table.

And he’s got great timing.

The Texas Legislature was a mess in 2005. They got nothing done. There’s no real record of achievement his opponents — two of them from the Texas House — can use to their advantage.

The ticket-topping governor’s race will be a snoozer. Gov. Rick "Don’t you like my hair?" Perry will easily handle Carole "One Tough Grandma with A Lot of Last Names" Strayhorn-Keeton-Smith-Jones-Gonzales-Porter in the GOP Primary.

That means low voter turnout, and that will also help Danny boy.

And, whether he or his team will admit it or not, Patrick is benefiting from a certain novelty factor. Anyone ever hear of Jesse "The Body" Ventura?

People are just ticked off enough to elect a bombastic and corny talk show host to the Texas Senate, even though they have no idea if he will be an able public servant. There are a number of voters who are thinking, "Why the hell not? That will fix those SOBs. Send Dan Patrick to Austin. If we’re not going to get tax relief, at least we’ll get some laughs out of the bastards."

Of course there are deeper issues at work here — real resentments and voter dissatisfaction based on rock solid conservative principles. But you don’t think there are voters out there influenced by the novelty factor? Please. Check back with us March 8th.

And, Patrick has drawn well when it comes to his competition — some of whom would be wise not to formally file within the next week. (Forgive us if they have. We didn’t check, as of this writing)

Republican state reps. Joe Nixon and Peggy Hamric cannot win this race.

And, as The Consigliere has repeatedly noted in the past, soon-to-be former Houston City Councilman Mark Ellis is embarking on a hopeless campaign. (This guy really believes that GOP primary voters in west Harris County are going to love a guy that got his hat handed to him by two liberal mayors. Please.)

Nixon will likely stay in the contest.

He has sunk (read :"wasted") a lot of money on his effort. He’s bought a lot of radio time, billboards and done some fancy mailers. The mailers were cute, except for this picture on one that makes it look like Nixon and his wife broke into the Oval Office and surprised President Bush.

Nixon is just a bad communicator. He’s undercut his own name ID, which wasn’t inconsiderable. His message is stale in this race. His ads are weak and his billboards are ugly. Sorry, but I don’t want to see Nixon’s mug on a billboard. He looks like Sydney Greenstreet in The Maltese Falcon.

BEGIN LST EDITORIAL INSERT

To save our readers the task of having to Google-Image the two themselves, we’ve put together this handy-dandy comparison.

END LST EDITORIAL INSERT

Hamric should exit gracefully and run again for her House seat. She had the best chance of battling Patrick and she let the chance slip through her fingers. Patrick and Nixon have raised money. She has not.

She had some good people helping her in the beginning. They were people she should have listened to. Now, she’s listening to a wacky Karl Rove-wannabe from out of town (read: "Austin") who couldn’t find his way around Harris County politics with a flashlight, GPS and Key Map.

Bye, Peg. Sorry. You could’ve been a contender. No more.

As for Ellis, well, he needs to drop out and run for Nixon’s House seat.

He cannot win this race. What’s his strategy? Is he going to wait for Nixon and Patrick to beat each other up and slip into a run-off? That only works if Nixon is landing some blows. He’s not, and it’s not likely he will. (Also helps when your consultant doesn’t jump ship)

Sorry, Councilman. Go find a sweet gig somewhere else. This won’t work. Again, you’re morphing into the political equivalent of the guy who lives in a van down by the river.

The only way Patrick’s high poll numbers come down is if his opponents or opponent can hang enough negatives on him. He knows that, and apparently is ready.

He knows when he goes off KSEV after officially filing later this week that it will be open season on him. His folks promised in a recent news release that they will be ready with rapid responses to any negative campaigning. They will need to be. But such a strategy by their opponents will backfire in this race.

Again, novelty voters like "characters" and folks flaws. Makes them more colorful. If Patrick keeps his cool, he’ll be fine. And, his surrogates on KSEV will keep the heat pretty high on his competition. (Note to future candidates: Having a radio station at your disposal rocks!)

LST EDITOR’S NOTE– We’d like to think that having a nominally independent blog on his side helps too.

That means the only question remaining is what kind of senator will Patrick make.

The Consigliere has some thoughts on that. Stay tuned.

Let’s say I’m white and I got money. Either I worked for it or my dad worked for it, or my grandfather worked for it and I inherited it. Still, it’s my money. And guess what — I’m not giving it to you! I’m sorry about Rodney King. I’m sorry about Emmett Till. I’m sorry about Rosa Parks. I’m not giving you my money. I’m sorry they turned water hoses and dogs on Martin Luther King. I’m sorry about Rosewood. I’m sorry about the Tuskegee Experiment. I’m not giving you my money. I’m sorry about slavery. I’m sorry about Jim Crow. But I never owned a slave, and I don’t use the ‘N’ word. I am not giving you my money.

Can you guess who said it?

Post leads on the Bramanti muggers here… LST is offering a $5.00 reward for any tips leading to their arrest and conviction.

I got robbed last night. I had some car trouble and was waiting for AAA to arrive when I was approached by three youths. The subsequent exchange went like this:

Punk: Let me see that phone.
Me: No

Then the punk slugged me over the head with something hard, and I dropped like a sack of hammers. When I came to, I was missing my cell phone, PDA and wallet. The wallet was found this morning near a Dumpster at a nearby apartment complex.

So I spent a very fun morning on the phone with my bank, and at the Houston Police Department’s Westside Command Station. The officers there were friendly and courteous, and very thorough in documenting my report.

It’s a shame that good cops are hamstrung by an administration that cares more about jaywalking-ticket revenue than they do about the knot on my head.

UPDATE: On the off chance that the Boys in Blue ever catch these guys, it’s nice to know they’ll be stamping out license plates in Huntsville for a long while. Texas isn’t very kind to robbers. Robbery is a second-degree felony, punishable by 2-20 years in prison and a fine of $10,000. Aggravated robbery is a first-degree felony, which will earn you 5 years to life, and a $10,000 fine.

Back in New Orleans, the Times-Picayune is criticizing Mayor Nagin for expecting FEMA to pay for more electrical inspectors:

The Nagin administration seems to think that the only solution to the city’s shortage of electrical inspectors is to talk the Federal Emergency Management Agency into paying for extra help.

That may eventually happen, although FEMA has been reluctant to do so because the federal Stafford Act doesn’t allow the agency to cover a city’s operating expenses. Meanwhile, New Orleanians anxious to get power restored to their homes have been left to wait endlessly for the city’s two electrical inspectors to get around to them.

Does this sound familiar? If Nagin can’t get money for electrical inspectors, how does Mayor White expect to get money for police? To my knowledge, FEMA isn’t even authorized to give grants for police protection. And to think — this is half of his plan!

Mayor White really cracks me up. He’s willing to support the use of taxpayer dollars for cost-inefficient rail systems, but balks at the idea of using tax dollars to bolster our police force.

In case you haven’t noticed, we’re in the midst of a crippling police shortage that’s only getting worse. Prior to the introduction of low-income Katrina refugees from high-crime areas, there was the problem of MS-13 and increased graffiti. For some time, we’ve needed a mayor who would focus on crime prevention.

So, is Bill White our man? Not really. As this glowing Chronicle editorial shows, his grand two-part plan is 1) to make FEMA pay for more police, and 2) to make apartment complexes pay for security guards:

The mayor has asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency to provide $6.5 million for a police task force to focus on troubled areas. This would be a good use of federal funds.

The White administration is expected to push an ordinance next year that will require apartment complexes registering a high number of calls for police assistance to hire in-house security officers to protect residents. Such a law would allow for round-the-clock deterrence and law enforcement in high crime areas and make maximum use of regular police patrols.

It’s only fair that apartment complex owners reaping increased revenues from storm-induced high occupancy rates should shoulder their share of the increased security costs. Their residents — and the city — will be safer from the threat of criminal activity. Vigorous anticrime measures are essential to making the rise in homicides a statistical anomaly rather than a long-term trend.

Begging FEMA to foot the bill isn’t much of a plan. FEMA has balked at paying numerous other bills, and there are already numerous other public officials clamoring for FEMA dollars. White might find himself drowned out in all of this, and the city of Houston will have to pay for it.

What then? Will White adjust yellow light times to enhance revenue from red light cameras? Start another round of jaywalking crackdowns? Concoct another SafeClear scam? With White at the helm, one can only speculate.

As far as making high-crime apartment complexes pay for security guards, I fail to see how that will truly help. All that will happen is rents will jump to pay for security, which means White plans to stick it to poor residents. And security guards aren’t going to be able any serious crimes, really. All they can do is call the police, which costs Houston money.

I’m still not hearing anything from White that sounds like a real solution, i.e. more academy classes and hiring more officiers.

UPDATE: I think Sedosi puts the situation in better perspective than I:

I’m sure that FEMA will be more than willing to overlook the terrible contracts and pensions written by the Brown administration which led to decreases in HPD staffing levels, the rise of MS-13 in Houston due to the department’s unwillingness to crack down on illegal immigration, and Mayor White’s programs that led to more police being out generating revenue downtown than patrolling neighborhoods to prevent crime.

Yeah…I’m sure of that.

I’d almost forgotten about White’s "productivity policy" that encourages police to write more tickets instead of patrolling (which appears unproductive!). Is there anything White does that doesn’t involve finding alternate revenue streams?

Not that I actually care, but I find it curious that the progressive paper in our world-class city hasn’t yet prohibited its copy-writers from using Islam’s holiest shrine as a substitute term for "Place Where Rich Mexicans Go to Buy Stuff":

McAllen cashes in as a shopping Mecca for affluent Mexicans

– Houston Chronicle headline, 12/28/05

Good for Jeff Cohen. Must be part of Kinky Friedman’s "Stop the Wussification of Texas" campaign.

The world is a bit less sweet this morning.

Michael Vale, the actor best known for his portrayal of a sleepy-eyed Dunkin’ Donuts baker who said "Time to make the doughnuts," has died. He was 83.

Vale died Saturday in New York City of complications from diabetes, according to son-in law Rick Reil.

Vale’s long-running character, "Fred the Baker," for the doughnut maker’s ad campaign lasted 15 years until he retired in 1997.

[Hat-tip: AP via Washington Post]

As my waist can attest, you served us well, Sir. R.I.P.

RELATED–

• "Time to Make the Doughnuts" commercial storyboard;
• Fred the Doughnut-Maker biker tattoo;
• Politically-correct analysis of Fred the Baker by gay-rights media watchdog group "Commercial Closet";

[EXCERPT]

The much-beloved Fred the Baker character, who has represented Dunkin’ Donuts in commercials since 1982, dons a dress to secretly find out what the grocery store competition is up to.

[snip]

Ads in this section may be funny to some, but they often use fear of same-sex attraction (homophobia) or "inappropriate" gender behavior (transphobia) — accompanied by a horrific reaction by someone straight — as their source of humor. Many ads that would already be funny purposely choose a "gay punchline" to heighten the joke. Gay or transgendered people are also shown here as queens, predators, pornographers, murderers, pedophiles and greeted with fear, shock, repulsion and occasional violence. Bisexuals are shown as cheaters, and transgender persons are often shown with the time-worn cliché of "Surprise — she’s a he!" These ads do not meet Commercial Closet’s Best Practices.

WARNING– Readers who decide to Google-Image the search term "Fred the Baker" are advised to have their "SafeSearch" tab turned ON.

Off and running…

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