Consigliere: Patrick whups *ss
by David Benzion · 12/29/2005 9:43 amThe Consigliere– who we here at LST do not know or have any connection to– has posted his insights on the entire field of Texas State Senate District 7 Republican candidates.
So as not to be accused of "selectively quoting" only the excerpts that make the candidate we support look good, we are re-producing The Consigliere’s blog-post here in full. (With minor editorial inserts added.)
BTW– Dan officially files for the race at 5:30 PM today– and you will then learn who his "surprise replacement" host will be, at least for the first few weeks of the campaign.
Be sure to be listening to KSEV 700 this afternoon!
Posted by The Consigliere on Monday, 12/26/05
If you put any stock in polls, pundits or the old gnawing feeling in the gut, there’s a political reality folks better come to grips with — Dan Patrick will be soon represent District 7 in the Texas Senate.In an Oct. 26th posting titled Patrick grabs early edge in Senate race, The Consigliere predicted that the conservative radio talk show host and former television sports personality had the inside track to win the Republican nomination in SD7 and that he would likely be the person to replace State Sen. Jon Lindsay, who is retiring.
Nothing has happened to make us change our minds.
In fact, unless Patrick gets caught covered in body paint with a dead boy or live animal in a cheap motel after a long night of selling crack to orphans and performing abortions in church parking lots, he will soon be a senator. And, he will have gained the title without having to endure a run-off.
(Sorry if we went a tad far with that last point. Wanted to paint you a picture.)
We have to give credit to Patrick.
He’s run a smart campaign — a modern and sleek effort cloaked in folksy Reagan-like populism and imagery. (Forgive the cynicism. But we all know this was all planned.)
The strategy has been good. Message has been on target and he’s surrounded himself with some sharp folks. He’s kept his famous temper in check. He got out there before his opponents and, like him or hate him, he’s a gifted communicator. On that point, he’s also taken full and brilliant advantage of his time on the radio every day.
No doubt. Dan Patrick is running the table.
And he’s got great timing.
The Texas Legislature was a mess in 2005. They got nothing done. There’s no real record of achievement his opponents — two of them from the Texas House — can use to their advantage.
The ticket-topping governor’s race will be a snoozer. Gov. Rick "Don’t you like my hair?" Perry will easily handle Carole "One Tough Grandma with A Lot of Last Names" Strayhorn-Keeton-Smith-Jones-Gonzales-Porter in the GOP Primary.
That means low voter turnout, and that will also help Danny boy.
And, whether he or his team will admit it or not, Patrick is benefiting from a certain novelty factor. Anyone ever hear of Jesse "The Body" Ventura?
People are just ticked off enough to elect a bombastic and corny talk show host to the Texas Senate, even though they have no idea if he will be an able public servant. There are a number of voters who are thinking, "Why the hell not? That will fix those SOBs. Send Dan Patrick to Austin. If we’re not going to get tax relief, at least we’ll get some laughs out of the bastards."
Of course there are deeper issues at work here — real resentments and voter dissatisfaction based on rock solid conservative principles. But you don’t think there are voters out there influenced by the novelty factor? Please. Check back with us March 8th.
And, Patrick has drawn well when it comes to his competition — some of whom would be wise not to formally file within the next week. (Forgive us if they have. We didn’t check, as of this writing)
Republican state reps. Joe Nixon and Peggy Hamric cannot win this race.
And, as The Consigliere has repeatedly noted in the past, soon-to-be former Houston City Councilman Mark Ellis is embarking on a hopeless campaign. (This guy really believes that GOP primary voters in west Harris County are going to love a guy that got his hat handed to him by two liberal mayors. Please.)
Nixon will likely stay in the contest.
He has sunk (read :"wasted") a lot of money on his effort. He’s bought a lot of radio time, billboards and done some fancy mailers. The mailers were cute, except for this picture on one that makes it look like Nixon and his wife broke into the Oval Office and surprised President Bush.
Nixon is just a bad communicator. He’s undercut his own name ID, which wasn’t inconsiderable. His message is stale in this race. His ads are weak and his billboards are ugly. Sorry, but I don’t want to see Nixon’s mug on a billboard. He looks like Sydney Greenstreet in The Maltese Falcon.
BEGIN LST EDITORIAL INSERT
To save our readers the task of having to Google-Image the two themselves, we’ve put together this handy-dandy comparison.
END LST EDITORIAL INSERT
Hamric should exit gracefully and run again for her House seat. She had the best chance of battling Patrick and she let the chance slip through her fingers. Patrick and Nixon have raised money. She has not.
She had some good people helping her in the beginning. They were people she should have listened to. Now, she’s listening to a wacky Karl Rove-wannabe from out of town (read: "Austin") who couldn’t find his way around Harris County politics with a flashlight, GPS and Key Map.
Bye, Peg. Sorry. You could’ve been a contender. No more.
As for Ellis, well, he needs to drop out and run for Nixon’s House seat.
He cannot win this race. What’s his strategy? Is he going to wait for Nixon and Patrick to beat each other up and slip into a run-off? That only works if Nixon is landing some blows. He’s not, and it’s not likely he will. (Also helps when your consultant doesn’t jump ship)
Sorry, Councilman. Go find a sweet gig somewhere else. This won’t work. Again, you’re morphing into the political equivalent of the guy who lives in a van down by the river.
The only way Patrick’s high poll numbers come down is if his opponents or opponent can hang enough negatives on him. He knows that, and apparently is ready.
He knows when he goes off KSEV after officially filing later this week that it will be open season on him. His folks promised in a recent news release that they will be ready with rapid responses to any negative campaigning. They will need to be. But such a strategy by their opponents will backfire in this race.
Again, novelty voters like "characters" and folks flaws. Makes them more colorful. If Patrick keeps his cool, he’ll be fine. And, his surrogates on KSEV will keep the heat pretty high on his competition. (Note to future candidates: Having a radio station at your disposal rocks!)
LST EDITOR’S NOTE– We’d like to think that having a nominally independent blog on his side helps too. 
That means the only question remaining is what kind of senator will Patrick make.
The Consigliere has some thoughts on that. Stay tuned.
Filed Under Uncategorized ·
Comments
27 Responses to “Consigliere: Patrick whups *ss”Search
Our Sponsors
Poll
Loading ...LST Book Club
-
Defending Identity: Its Indispensable Role in Protecting Democracy
by Natan Sharansky -
Fear No Evil
by Natan Sharansky -
The Case For Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror
by Anatoly Shcharansky -
The Jewish State: The Struggle for Israel's Soul
by Yoram Hazony -
Bobos in Paradise: The New Upper Class and How They Got There
by David Brooks -
Snobbery: The American Version
by Joseph Epstein -
A Conflict of Visions: Idealogical Origins of Political Struggles
by Thomas Sowell
I hope Dan wins, but he will be an outsider, and won’t be much more than an aggravation to the cronies in Austin until he can get some good committee assignments. I hope he has the patience to endure the first couple of sessions – they’re going to be rough for him. In the meantime, we need to throw a few more bums out. It will only take three or four senators who think like Dan to really start rocking the boat, but it won’t happen right away. Even if he wins, meaningful change is going to be problematic. If he can stay the course, he will eventually prevail.
I’m just thankful you guys didn’t Google-Image this:
I remember Gadboy having an opinion on Dan Patrick’s chances a few days ago. You lurkin’ out there, Gadboy?
It will be a start, a foothold.
Dan’s biggest weapon early on will be the bright light of day.
You guy’s had me until you deemed yourselves a “nominally independent blog”….
S.
Dan will get elected. Whether he will be effective is another thing. Unfortunately, our congressmen and senators are too accepting of special interest groups. It you give them a big enough check, they will push your agenda, bill or whatever. It’s all about money and power, IMO. The thing about Dan is that he will be changing the views of the pols in Austin. You can bet they won’t want to hear Dan’s show where he will tell us taxpayers what is really happening in Austin. I see his election as having a domino effect, sooner or later, these pols will remember who they represent. Or am I just being too optimistic?
My take, for what it is worth, unless Dan seriously screws up or his opponents find some bloody skeletons to dig up, Dan is a shoe in, and a state senator has a heluva lot more power than a state rep because there are only something like 32 of them. That said, Dan sometimes focuses too narrowly and looses sight of the forest a bit. I do hope he learns to step back a little and see the bigger picture once in a while. meaning more than just property tax relief, there are a lot of issues that he will need to address, focusing too narrowly on just one or two could be a handicap. He also tends to be a bit thin skinned sometimes. That means the knives don’t have to be sharp or driven deeply to draw a lot of blood. His opponents in the senate will certainly enjoy that if he lets them. On the whole, I believe Dan will be a force of change for the better in State politics if he can keep his temper in check and his outlook broad. Having a radio station to beat on your opponents with is a useful tool, but let us not put too much stock in that, KSEV is not even heard thoughout all of SD7 (The signal up here in spring is a bit spotty at times), much less the rest of the state and only so many people will listen via the internet. Pounding on the senator from Austin or El Paso may or may not draw as much blood as Dan hopes simply because thier constituents don’t hear the message.
#5 pmartin
Dan will not have a show after filing to run for Senator. Something about a “unfair” advantage. However, once he’s elected, there’s nothing from KSEV having Dan as a guest. That may be the way he can espouse what’s transpiring in Austin and a way for us to really know “who’s on first” and what Rhino’s are left after the election.
I am optimistic about Dan’s chances and his committment once elected. I know him personally and will be greatly disappointed if he does not do what he says whe’s going to Austin to try and get changed. I believe that he is passionate about property tax relief and cutting the size and scope of government. It will take more than Dan for this to be accomplished. One person can’t do it alone. He can, however, let the us taxpayers know who’s blocking the introduction amd or passage of any bills and what special interest groups are involved. I like that aspect of his involvement!
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this is the start of some real reform in Texas politics.
Anybody want to buy a pic of Dan with a goat? Dont worry Dan,I wouldnt sell it for all the Chinese toys in Wal-Mart. Give em hell Dano!
I think Nixon looks more like
http://www.irioti.com/oldmanpotteraward.jpg
Don’t underestimate the power of Dan’s victory over the entrenched. That will rock some boats. But even more powerful will be the real-time, unfiltered spotlight on their every actions that KSEV will provide.
Sure, they will toss every roadblock in front of Dan they can, but I see the victory as awakening even more of the silent majority who will force change in Austin. It is their egos that are the pols weakness- and we know right where to hit them.
#7 Malcolm,
I thought Dan wouldn’t be on the air during the campaign. I can see that. But to keep a man from his job when not in Austin? I might be wrong about this, but I thought that’s what Dan said. Anyone else?
Just heard Dan on the radio saying he might be back after March 8 (if he wins the primary).
Great idea to have his son doing the hosting! I really cannot tell them apart!
Rorschach
#6
I don’t think so. Anyone that has listened to Dan has heard him talk about every “failing or flaw” that he has ever expirienced or had.
I think Dan’s greatest strength (outside of his faith) is the fact that he is laser focused on what he wants to tackle. He is not trying to be all things to all people. His next greatest strength is he is a man that has nothing to lose. I believe the man when he says he does not care what others think. If he does not win he will return home, resume his duties at the radio station and go on about his rat killin’. There is strength in that knowledge that his opponents don’t understand.
A caller suggested Dan use his son, same voice great idea, GO DAN
Yes, but can Dan build a coalition with Kinky Freidman? That would be worth the price of admission!!!!
Filing at 5:30 PM?
BTW, the Primary Office closes at 5:00 PM.
http://www.harriscountygop.com/sections/elections/2006elec.asp
#15, the deadline for filing is January 2, 2006. Dan is filing today because the GOP offices are closed tomorrow.
Wonderful pick! Let’s all get behind Ryan Patrick and help him out for the next few weeks. I always enjoy hearing Ryan (but am still pretty mad at the trick Dan pulled a few years ago, substituting Ryan for himself!)
Go Ryan. Go Dan. We are behind you both!
Dan will win, but it is not time for us to sit back, assured he will win and not vote. We have to get the numbers up and we can’t do that by sitting at home, thinking, “well, he’s going to win anyway, my 1 vote will count for nothing.” That is absolutely wrong. Just like GWB, we knew he had Texas, but the # of voters would make a make a statement. He could have won Texas with half the votes. We need to send a message to Austin by voting for Dan in BIG numbers. I would like to see him win by 65%. Do not just sit home — VOTE - be a “primary voter” for once. There is more riding on this than one can see at the present. We have to send a message to Austin. So, I’ll step down from my soapbox and hopefully everyone will get this message! Even Dan stressed it yesterday afternon. Fight to the finish! (I know, kinda corny!)
Everyone here seems to know Mr. Patrick better than I do, so who can answer two questions:
1. It is at least possible that abortion will be passed back to the states. That being the case, what is his position on abortion, and why?
2. I have little hope for the Feds to protect our border like they should. How far can Mr. Patrick be expected to go to protect our borders? Could he be expected to press for Texas to take protection of the TEXAS-Mexico border into our own hands like by building our own wall and patrolling it?
Chuck #19
RE: Question 1
As far as being passed back to the states that will require over turning Roe. Mr. Patrick is Pro-Life. Why? Chrisitian beliefs. Any more than that you have to ask him.
Re: Question 2
Short answer, Yes to your question. He wants to press Austin into action in the form of civilian volunteers much like the Minutemen and other solutions.
Squawk-How were your holidays?
#16, I know the filing deadline, I know the GOP offices are closed Dec 30th. The Primary Office closes at 5:00 PM for THE DAY, hence my comment about filing at 5:30 PM. Never mind.
gadboy
#21
Greetings amigo. They were great for me. Had my youngest here to visit. Got my butt kicked unmercifully in video games. Kids….
How were yours?
Quiet, quiet, but now we’re going to have to get in a pissin match again, which we haven’t done in a while
gadboy
#24
I get the distinct feeling that you ummm are going to take a stand against Dan Patrick.
gadboy
glad you made it back btw. It’s good to see your smiling face.
This is just the first step. Congress is next. Any wagers on that prediction?