Do they think you’re STUPID?
by David Benzion · 12/30/2005 10:46 amKristen Mack of the Houston Chronicle has a fair and straightforward piece this morning on Dan Patrick’s official filing for the State Senate District 7 Republican primary.
I was a bit stunned, however, by the spin Nixon campaign spokesman Jim McGrath put on recent poll results showing Patrick kicking butt in the race so far:
Patrick recently released a poll of likely Republican primary voters that shows him earning 54 percent of the vote if the election were held today. Nixon had 10 percent, Hamric had 9 percent and Ellis garnered 7 percent among those polled.
The poll, commissioned by Patrick and conducted by the Colorado-based polling firm Vitale & Associates, was taken in early December.
Nixon spokesman Jim McGrath questions the results.
"He’s been on the air in the Houston market for years. Naturally he has a name ID advantage. We dispute that he has that level of support," McGrath said. "Name ID is one thing, support is another."
Nice bait and switch, Jim– but you’ve worked in politics long enough to know the difference between measuring "Name ID" and "Ballot Preference".
The former is simply a measure of whether or not a poll respondent has ever heard of a candidate, is frequently combined with an inquiry about perceptions of "favorability", and is typically measured with a question along the lines of:
"Now I am going to read you the names of candidates running for State Senate District 7. For each one, please tell me if you have heard of that candidate– and if so, whether or not your opinion of them is favorable or unfavorable."
"Ballot Preference" is when you ask people who they intend to vote for if the election were held today.
And that is precisely the question that produced the results (Patrick 54%, Undecided 20%, Nixon 10%, Hamric 9%, Ellis 7%) the Nixon campaign is trying to evade.
McGrath’s shell-game is particularly chutzpah-laden in that the poll in question actually included a question on name id alone– with the results as follows:
NOTE: Candidate — Name ID — Favorable — Unfavorable
Patrick — 91% — 67% — 9%
Nixon — 72% — 32% — 11%
Hamric — 53% — 25% — 4%
Ellis — 67% — 25% — 8%
If McGrath wants to argue that Dan beat Nixon in name id or favorability (by +19 and +35 margins, for what it is worth) simply because he has been on the air for so long, fine– that is a worthy debate.
But to claim that Dan’s + 44-point lead over Nixon on ballot preference doesn’t measure Patrick’s actual support is to argue that Republican primary voters are too stupid to distinguish between being asked if they’ve ever heard of someone and if they intend to actually vote for them.
Perhaps McGrath was misquoted. Because I just find it hard to believe that either he or the Nixon campaign would be prepared to publicly take that position– even if it is the conventional wisdom among the special-interest lobbyists whose massive contributions are fueling their efforts. 
————————————-
Full Disclosure: Although an employee of KSEV and a volunteer for the Dan Patrick for Senate Campaign, opinions expressed here should be assummed to reflect only those of their author, David Benzion. LoneStarTimes.com is a legally independent entity from KSEV, and is fully owned and operated by David Benzion.
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McGrath is simply trying to spin a bad situation as best he can.
Wait til they go negative with all the (special interest) loot at their disposal.
Hope Dan never kicked a puppy when he was 5.
This is only the first of what will be a tsunami of spin, flak, and downright ridicules comments from Dan’s opponents and their mouth pieces.
As was pointed out in that entertaining post from The Consigliere yesterday, Dan has professionals around him (as David so illustrates with this post on how polls actually work).
McGrath and the other spin-misters are going to try, but as with today’s Chron article, come off looking like fools.
With this kinda work on his behalf, Nixon stands the chance of actually seeing his numbers drop (except that unfavorable, which will surly rise if the threats of a full out attack on Dan are true).
What do you think Nixon or these other losers would say? “Yeh,Dan is kickin my ass,I am writing my concession speech now”? These guys are bottom feeding,scum sucking politicians. What they say means nothing. Give em hell Dan! (No offense to bottom feeders or scum suckers.)
I received an invite from Joe Nixon to attend a “Coffee and Conversation with Joe Nixon”. Is Joe one of Dan’s opponents getting lobby money from out of state? If so, he waited a bit too long before trying to ask this Republican for money. I made another donation to Dan’s campaign after receiving the Nixon invite. I heard from Dan months ago, and now one month before the early voting I’m finally hearing from “the competition”?
I have been wondering about something. Every time Dan makes any reference to the campaign on the radio, he follows with the “Paid for by Patrick for senate……” Since he runs KSEV, how can we be sure the campaign is actually paying for all this time?Is this something we could find out from The FCC?
#8 - I believe all of the accounting records for the campaign have to made available for scrutiny, if asked for. Knock your lights out.
#8 gadboy
My life’s too cluttered for my pea brain to even consider or care about such matters. How’d you manage to flush life’s complexities out of yours so that you can chase scandals in the non-making?
I thought you might be a “stringer” for the Chronicle but your typing looks suspiciously like Nixon’s.
#10_I’m still trying to figure out exactly what you’re trying to say.
gadboy
#8
Dan Patrick Campaign, Paul Bettencourt, Treasurer
11451 Katy Freeway, Ste. 215, Houston, TX 77079, (281) 500-4665, (281) 667-3120 fax
Give em a call and ask them.
see ya next year amigo.
How many of those polled had heard of “Central Appraisal Districts” and “Appraisal Caps”?
“He’s been on the air in the Houston market for years. Naturally he has a name ID advantage. We dispute that he has that level of support,” McGrath said. “Name ID is one thing, support is another.”
Yes, they are two different things.
Your side is losing both of them by double digits, Mr. McGrath.
I guess being right on issue after issue (can you say “tax-payer funded stadiums,” “light rail,” OR “appraisal caps?”) has given Dan an advantage with informed voters.
Lets see here #14.
1)Dan was against light rail. We have it.
2)Dan was against the stadiums np matter how we paid for them. They were built.
3)Dan tried twice to get Orlando Sanchez elected Mayor. Does anyone even know what Orlando is doing now?
Doesn’t sound like he has accomplished much to me. The tax issue was a no brainer and he still doesn’t have what he really wanted.
Gadboy,
The light rail is a disaster and a money hole.
The stadiums are waste of money and our teams are losers.
Orlando might have been a better Mayor than the Liberal Democrat White.
Dan was on the right side of these issues. They got passed because the inner city blacks got lied to for their votes.
Whats your point?
If Dan had as much influence as you are claiming he has, Bill White would not be mayor and we would not have light rail. I don’t know how much plainer I can put it.
Gad, my point is Dan had the support and was on the right side. But most of Dans support is outside the voting Houston city limits. Inside the city is the inner city suckers whos vote can be purchased for a six pack of malt liquor.
Take away the black inner city vote and we have no light rail,3 new tax payer funded stadiums and probably lower taxes and better mass transit and a Republican mayor.
gadboy:
Do you honestly think that Mcgrath’s comments are not “spin”? In my humble opinion, gregg is right on target. His candidate is behind in the polls and he’s just trying to put him in a better light. That’s his job.
“But we’re not stupid”
Re Dan’s influence. Why don’t we wait and see when and if he’s elected what he actually does (votes for) before we make any judgements and start to criticize and second guess his intentions? I have to admit that my hindsight is not 20-20 but it’s a heck of a lot better than my foresight.
Echoing Squawk: See ya next year.
Hope ‘06 is a good one for you!
David,
Polls are nice indicators and they can be a good indicator of the likely voter’s pick, but fightning over poll numbers is like, … well like fighting over the likly future outcome of a horserace, football game, or the weather. Its kind of pointless. The only poll that really counts is the one held at the ballot box.
I suspect Dan will do well, but crowing before the bird is in the bag is not a good idea on anyone’s part.
Simple
#15 gadboy
My point is that you don’t always have to win to be right.
And its corollary is that you aren’t necessarily right, even if you did win.
I’ll expand on my point:
Dan is winning because informed voters know that he has been right on issue after issue; I gave three examples of such issues where he is and was on the right side.
Wino - Spot on! I very much respect Gadboy’s comments, however, for him to start out so negative without any proof makes me wonder (since I can’t shake my head, HS :-D)
What I found telling in the comical article was how it played up the little radio ad line about protecting our southern border yet mentiond virtually NOTHING about the main issue that Dan will ride straight into Austin..PROPERTY TAX and SPENDING REFORM!
No doubt the comical folks assumed that by playing up the border issue it will enrage the folks whereas the property tax issue actually resonates with some left leaning types. Of course the average comical editor has NO IDEA about the type of folks who live in senate 7. I am sure that some coffee shop t-sipper in Montrose would be all worked up over the border comment BUT not anybody ourt here. WE , the troglodites who actually work in the real world, happen to agree with Dam even about the border!!!…oh the shock and horror Mr. Chronicle editor..you blew it again 1!!
Good point, Bruce.
Once again, the Chronic-Lies’ bias shows… and perhaps, this time, the bias really is unintentional. I’m trying to decide if that’s better or worse than intentional bias (like anything having to do with Tom DeLay, for instance).
It is obvious their well proven bias combined with their typical inner loop world view. All of the media in this town from the comical to the tv news pukes only cover outside the loop via a helicopter for a fire or wreck. They all continually force feed us the self-appointed third world named community activists and their spWN screeching about some inner city playground issue much like the national media falls all over the bi-coastals and refers to the rest of us as fly-over country.
The comical no more knows how we live,work and play out here in SENATE 7 than we understand them having a 400 million dollar idiot electric toy train running EMPTY from nowhere to noplace while we sit in traffic on 290.
The absolute major difference between Dan and every other yahoo-politician is his sincere desire to do the right thing for the right reason.
And let me tell you “gadboy”, et al…the people are FED UP with business as usual. The politicians just don’t get it. Whether it is the Dems, the Repubs or the RINOs…they can’t seem to read the handwriting on the wall.
YOUR DAYS ARE NUMBERED FOLKS!
I predict Dan will win by a landslide. And even though there is some dispute over who said this or even if it was actually stated by someone, it rings of truth nonetheless:
“Those who cast the votes decide nothing, those who count the votes decide everything.”
My biggest fear is that Dan will win, head off to the Senate and have a rude awakening just as what happened the first time. (Which resulted in C.L.O.U.T. What was it…11,000 members inside of 30 days? Bet that drew some respect in a town with none for anyone.)
I do believe that Yeshua has prepared Dan for the road ahead and no matter what happens…it will be Yeshua’s will.
Sherry
#26 Sherry
I think that Dan’s fully aware of the probable lack of (legislative) results he’ll get, at least at first.
His voice will be one voice of 31 (I think that’s the number). No matter what he wants to say or do, he’ll need the support of several of his compatriots to do anything at all.
As I’ve heard him say on the radio, at least he’ll be able to blow the whistle on the back-room dealings that permeate our State government.
Once a few more like-minded individuals are elected, we’ll see results. Politicians are not stupid. Even they can learn. Their main objective is to get rich on the government teat, and they can’t do that without being elected to office… hence, when they feel their re-election threatened, they’ll conform to our wishes.
I just hope we can cure this blight, rather than just cover it up for a while.
Note: I use the term “politician” in its most perjorative sense. Merely running for or being elected to a public office does not make one a politician.
From dictionary.com:
Politician: One who seeks personal or partisan gain, often by scheming and maneuvering…
We have got to start cleaning up Austin..!
We have got to start somewhere…?
Dan may not be perfect, but it he doesn’t give us the results we need than we can start over next election until we get someone who will listen..!
1. Taxes are too high..!
2. Schools are wasting millions of dollars unchecked..!
3. Teachers are ask to teach in schools that are unsafe and with every little raise that the state gives them the school districts take it back in insurance.. ! its a net sum game..?
Wino & Rat…Hey fellas, from the tone of your comments, I get the impression that I have been misunderstood. I am on Dan’s side and he is the best thing, only thing going.
But, until you have been behind the closed doors up there, you don’t know what is REALLY happening. I was simply using the property tax incident as an example of one thinking they understand (that Austin will care once they get the full picture) and then the harsh reality that they not only do have the full picture, but they could care less. Now, if Dan or anyone else thinks that is as deep as it goes…I have a nice piece of beach front property in the Dakota’s for a real cheap price.
I think you get me drift. There are wheels within wheels and nothing is as it seems. And when Dan gets there he will be as a Child (i.e., true & innocent) walking into the vipers pit (Satan’s lair). Make no mistake about it.
He will see “just how far the rabbit hole really goes.” JFK thought he could bring us back too. Look what happened to him.
Dan: My heartfelt prayers are with you. This is the year of the people.
Sherry
Sherry,
Just a little bit of reality..the kennedy presidency was a total failure from the beginning. His feel good speechmaking media made “Camelot” was just a wished for dream. His numbers were in the toilet, early polls had Mr. Goldwater in the lead. Had he survived that November day he would have been, most likely, a one term failure, the kennedy myth never materialized, we would have been spared the bobbyboy crap and teddy would just be another Mass. drunk!
To All:
I hope Dan does get elected, although I am not in his district and it really is none of my business, but I do believe that it will be interesting to see how he does if elected.
I do still believe that all incumbents should be turned out of office on a regular basis, which is pretty much contrary to practice. Incumbent politicians tend to be returned to office until they die or get caught with their hands in the till or somewhere else best left unsaid.
Right now, we have the crew elected to the state houses, US House, and Senate during the “Contract with America” sweep in 1994. They came into office with the mission to change government and in some respects they did, but the longer they stay in office, the more they tend to resemble the folks who were replaced.
These “Borrow and Spend” Republicans need to be sent home to excel in the private sector, but I have not seen anything from the other side worth writing home about. I am beginning to wonder how deep either side’s bench is today.
Perhaps we should put out a sign.
Amateur Legislators Wanted!
Simple
Recent posters:
Sherry, I understood exactly what you were saying, and just amplified a bit on your point. My minor point of disagreement was what I said; Dan knows going in that the odds and machinations are both going to be against him.
I really don’t expect “results” from Dan’s election. I expect a shakeup… and hope for follow-up results, the sooner the better.
I just hope the “Your days are numbered” comment proves prophetic.
It is definitely a problem with incumbents. How many of our “republican” legislators are really democrats who just changed parties when they realized Texans had equated “democrat” with “failed, corrupt State government?” RINO doesn’t begin to scratch the surface of their duplicity. Perry and one-tough-liberal are just two examples of such non-republicans.
The previous paragraph also goes to the “republican” majority we have in the US Congress, as well. Many are just democrats, which is why the “moderate republicans” are really just democrats who couldn’t stand being in the minority party. I’ll wager that more than 50% of the “Contract” republicans would change back to the democrat party were that party to get back into the majority.
It’s an endemic problem that can only be cured with citizen politicians. Hmmm… that’s an idea… why not form a “Citizens Party?” We could be fiscally and morally conservative, like the republicans claim to be, but arent. We could be compassionate and caring, like the democrats claim to be, but aren’t.
Here’s my motto for our “Citizens Welfare Program”: If you try, we’ll help you.