Fred Thompson got a slight bounce from his much-delayed formal announcement of his Presidential run, and now is atop the field:
In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, Thompson is on top for the first time since late July. The former Tennessee Senator is currently the top choice for 26% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Rudy Giuliani, who has been the frontrunner for most of the year, is close behind with support from 22%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earns the vote from 13% while 12% prefer Arizona Senator John McCain. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee remains atop the second tier at 6%.
As of Friday, Rasmussen Reports showed Thompson three points behind Giuliani, before a surge over the weekend made him the current front-runner.
Even better news for Thompson is that GOP conservatives, as expected by many, seem to be gravitating toward the lawyer-actor-senator:
Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement. Conservatives account for more than 60% of GOP primary voters. Two-thirds of Republican voters view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.
Rasmussen cautions that bumps can just as quickly turn into potholes, so the question now is whether Thompson can fulfill his “annointed” role as the real campaign begins.
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27 Responses to “Thompson tops GOP polls: Where to from here?”Search
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The link to Republican Primary sends me to Word Press.
Why does the Rasmussen poll consistently show Thompson higher than the other polls?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html
I don’t know who I’m going to vote for as yet. At this point, I would vote for Huckabee. I really like Duncan Hunter (he really impressed me today, as always), but I know he can’t win. I think the bump Thompson is seeing is just a surge because he is running — nothing to be concerned about. His old Fred Heads are coming forward.
It’s a long way to Tucumcari…… haven’t decided yet.
In a period of “ABH” (HELLary, not Huckabee), Thompson is as good as any other Republican. It is way too early to tell anything yet but I like Thompson so far.
2.
Good question. I am suspicious of most of the polls, but not necessarily because of the pollsters - I suspect a lot of people are still a little flippant at the whole idea, meaning it may be one candidate one day, another one the next. Maybe by December they’ll mean something.
For example, I have a hard time believing that Rudy is going to win in South Carolina and Florida. But, if you take a snapshot of the polls, that’s what they’re showing.
I’m not sold on Thompson, yet. Maybe he will be the one to take on Hellery. Depends on his debate skills. Lots of stuff may unfold. Like Fred! says, it is early in the process. He may be the “annointed one” of the Republican Party, I don’t know. Newt seems to think he can win, inasmuch as Newt said he would not throw his hat in the ring if Thompson ran. Plus Newt is giving Thompson advice. Too early to call, IMO.
Best news from this;
When are you high-browed moderates in the party who want to negotiate with terrorists but not with us gonna give just a little?
RickG,
I’m just curious about the Rasmussen methodology. There has to be a reason why they are the only poll that consistently shows Thompson with high numbers.
Don’t know about SC, but Rudy’s campaign has hit Florida hard and they are counting on it.
There are a lot of Northeasterners in south Florida and they don’t care too much for Southerners. Rudy is one of them.
He is one of which, trying to understand.
Oh I get it, nevermind. I thought most of them migrated and were registered back home.
You guys know anyone that has played the predictions market on real clear? I might create an account to see if I can make a little ice cream money.
No but I’m stayin’ in a Holiday Inn this weekend.
GJT - I think they vote both places.
Figured out the chads in NY I guess.
When you check out, let me know if I should do it or not.
It is not uncommon to see Florida plates in NJ and NYC. Many people from this area buy a home down there and establish residency. They treat their home up here as a second home even though they still live and work here primarily. There are many more who just fly back and forth and keep cars in both places.
Sorry, can’t reveal insider info. What, you don’t need guitar money? Your rich!
I can’t fit any more guitars in the trailer. Heck, I opened a case the other day and had to scratch my head, wondering when I bought it.
This is silly, but when Thompson’s campaign chose a bunch of “Country” songs to play before and after his speeches and he included a lot of “folks” and “y’alls” delivered in a Southern drawl during his speeches - I thought, “Uh Oh… The nation does not want another redneck yokel in the White House so soon after Bush.”
#21 - MsLiz in this case I must point out a critical distinction:
ARTICULATE redneck!
And I’ll add that Bush is a wannabe Southerner, seeing as how he was born in Connecticut.
When any candidate is only getting 25% of the polled vote it is clear that there is no one coming out as the clear winner. Unless you receive over 50% you have done nothing but put yourself in another election (runoff). These polls that split the this up into little pies are doing nothing to help determine the next winner. When we start seeing “polls” showing a candidate with 50-60% then you have your winner otherwise it is just bending the numbers for a story.
There are no run-offs in presidential primaries.
Exactly. So these numbers are nothing but somebodies look at some group of folks, nothing close to an election. I say let the election tell the numbers and stop the worthless polling. Or stop using the polls to make any points/arguments/articles. There is no real basis besides a random sampling.
#10
You drive more than 10 miles away from the coast in FL, and you start hearing banjos. The only exception to this is the I-4 corridor.
There may be a lot of yankees down here, but there are even more rednecks, good ‘ol boys, and other assorted native fauna.