Whether it’s due to unfair negative campaigning or people actually looking closer at his record it seems that Mike Huckabee’s momentum in Iowa has hit a snag in the late going. It now looks like press reports might be right for once - Iowa is still undecided, a current toss-up between Romney and Huckabee.
According to RealClearPolitics, polls taken in the last five days average our to a virtual dead heat:
ReutersC-Span/Zogby: Huck 29%, Romney 27%
Am. Resarch Group: Romney 32%, Huck 23%
Mason-Dixon: Romney 27%, Huck 23%
Strategic Vision: Huck 29%, Romney 27%
Quad City Times: Huck 34%, Romney 27%
The back-and-forth of these polls suggests people are really vacillating or the polling in Iowa is crappy.
The most recent (post-Christmas) polling might be bothersome for Huckabee supporters: the Real Clear Politics charts show that, in 15 polls between the end of November and Christmas, Huckabee led in 14 (though they fluctuated considerably, from showing him eight points ahead to three behind).
The good news for Huckabee is that the latest polls - Zogby’s - shows him trending up the last few days, for a 1 to 2-point lead.
By week’s end, we’ll at least have actual votes recorded for the candidates. And Iowa gets to go first.
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22 Responses to “Iowa Polls Tightening at the Wire”Search
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I’m excited to see how Iowans vote. They have been cajoled, pleaded with, lied to, and probably some have been bought. I bet they are sick of this by now. It will be interesting.
AW, agreed, most likely Iowans just want the outsiders to leave the mornining of Jan. 4 at the latest so they can have their state back.
Now that their Christmas and New Year’s celebrations have been trampled by pushing the caucuses so absurdly early, maybe they will force the party heads to put things back where they were the next time.
I think the Iowans enjoy all the candidates spending all that money campaigning in a state that would otherwise be insignificant in the over all scheme of things. How and why Iowa is first is beyond me. You would think the powerful politicans would want a bigger state to start so they don’t waste all that time and campaign funds. Oh well, the dirty business of politics goes on. All I got to say is “ABH”!!!!
What I want to know is just why it is that Iowa and New Hampshire, and the media, get to decide for the rest of us who the final nominees are going to be.
– Ken
No choice - no hope. Worst field of candidates I have ever seen. Pretty discouraging, but I guess we’ll get what we deserve.
“The back-and-forth of these polls suggests people are really vacillating or the polling in Iowa is crappy.”
I’m with the latter, and agree with Ken Kelley. What is special about Iowa. Isn’t IOWA Indian for I Oughtta Went Around?
And how many people are there in New Hampshire, a state the size of a Texas county that has Canada and Massachusetts as neighbors?
#4, they only get to choose for you if you let them.
Isn’t the Iowa state tree a telephone pole?
Previous Iowa Caucus winners:
1976 - R-Gerald Ford D-”uncommitted”
1980 - R-George HW Bush D-Jimmy Carter
1984 - R-Ronald Reagan (unopposed) D-Walter Mondale
1988 - R-Bob Dole D-Richard Gephardt
1992 - R-George HW Bush D-Tom Harkin
1996 - R-Bob Dole D-Bill Clinton (unopposed)
2000 - R-George W Bush D-Al Gore
2004 - R-George W Bush (unopposed) D-John Kerry
So discounting the three cases where the nominee was the incumbent and unopposed in the race, Iowegians have only picked the President one time, in 2000. Why do we even pay attention to this race?
Iowa home of ethanol. Just give these politicians more corn gas and they will write the legislation needed.
If not Iowa, what would be the ideal state to start this circus? Texas? Ha! Ha! Ha!
I don’t particularly care which state but why so much attention (and money) is paid to a state that clearly holds no sway is baffling.
12. hamous
Ain’t it the truth . . .
This thing has gone off the rails a long time ago. This campaign is too long and the 24 hour media is too starved for “news” (though much of the slop they toss at us is anything but).
I guess Iowa is important because we let the media tell us it is - along with whoever wins, of course.
But I pledge to you my vote will not be swayed by the outcome in Iowa.
I’m only hoping something does eventally come along to sway it.
It will.
It is highly likely that the Republican Candidate—if not the Democrat as well, will not be chosen by the time Texas, Ohio, and Vermont have thier primaries on March 4. Although after “Super Tuesday” it will likely be close between at least two candidates in each party.
There’s a very good chance that WE will decide who both parties will run.
#5 Rastus
Please explain to me why the current field of candidates are worse than the candidates in the Republican primaries of 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988 and 1976 ?
texpat - Everyone’s still lookin’ for a hero.
Where is my John Wayne
Where is my prairie son
Where is my happy ending
Where have all the cowboys gone
16 hamous,
This song might be more appropriate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvzUdM29_uA
Don’t you love farce?
My fault I fear.
I thought that you’d want what I want.
Sorry, my dear.
But where are the clowns?
Quick, send in the clowns.
Don’t bother, they’re here.
I thought that you were ready and then you got lazy
Why did you lie down in the shade
Forty years of waiting the country needed changing
You didn’t lose, you peed it away
I said watch the border but you couldn’t pass a bill
Where is my Reagan
Don’t say it’s John McCain
Where is my happy ending
Where have all the conservatives gone
Will we be ready or will it be Kerry, HRC, or Al from Tennessee
You’ve made friends in Washington, off the reservation
Why couldn’t you just listen to me
I’m still at the crossroads back home way down here
Where is my happy ending
Where have all the conservatives gone
Where is my happy ending
Where have all the conservatives gone
Where is my happy ending
Where have all the conservatives gone
Be wary of what you ask, Iowegians may not be the worst, some have suggested moving the caucus to Ohio, Ohiogonians are nuts (IMHO), careful consideration should be given when allowing politicos to change procedure.
#14 Sarge. Agreed that Texas primary voters will have a significant say in the nominee(s).
Hey, the conventions select their nominees on the basis of delegate votes, and the delegates come from the states and territories, not the media(much as they’d like to control it). And Texas has more than a few delegates in comparison to Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina for instance. It’s not over until it’s over, and for a change the conventions might have more than a script to offer.
This whole Iowa thing of being the 1st primary will determine who the nominee will be is blown way out of proportion due to media hype. Only ignoramuses believe it will because they believe the media and the polls. A real thinker believes not of it.
And that’s just the Huckabee campaign!