Dan discusses HD 130 poll
by David Benzion · 01/09/2008 4:29 pmLST brought you word yesterday of a public opinion poll concerning incumbent TX HD 130 Representative Corbin Van Arsdale that concluded…
Van Arsdale is seriously vulnerable to a reelection challenge from a candidate voters believe will not just promise fiscal conservativism on the campaign trail, but will actually deliver it once in Austin
Disclosure: I am a Senior Research Analyst with Hill Research Consultants, the polling firm that conducted this survey.
HRC’s strictly-adhered to policy for 20 years has been to neither confirm nor deny the identity of a client without their prior approval, even in cases where such approval was expected but not yet officially received.
As he has just announced, claimed credit for and discussed the findings of the survey on his talk-show, we can now confirm that our client was District 7 Texas State Senator Dan Patrick. Congratulations PubliusTX.
It is apparent from a caller to Edd and Pat this morning that someone is now in the field with their own, supposedly “pro” Van Arsdale survey.
That is to be expected. No doubt many people want to learn if Van Arsdale is as out of touch with his conservative GOP base on tax and spending issues as we measured.
Of course, to debate the issue, whoever commissioned this other survey is going to have to be as transparent with the findings, methodology and research questionnaire as was Dan Patrick with the survey he fielded.
We look forward to being matched in transparency, so that a healthy public debate may be had by all. 
To read HRC’s report to Senator Patrick and review the questionnaire for yourself, click here.
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Thank you Dan. I sincerely hope Van Arsdale is toast.
Is this just about taking down one RINO at a time from the Texas house? Seems like quite a bit of discussion for one of thirty Reps in Houston.
raiderdav– it is my understanding that of the state reps whose districts overlap with Dan’s, Van Arsdale is the most consistently egregious in terms of (in Dan’s judgment) telling the folks back home one thing but then voting a different way once in Austin.
Van Arsdale doesn’t serve people from some part of Texas that Dan isn’t familiar with. This is his own back yard. Van Arsdale’s constituents are Dan’s base.
So Dan knows why they sent him to Austin… and then he sees one guy voting a completely different way (on critical budgetary votes especially).
So the question presents itself– who’s got a better pulse on what these conservative, grassroots republicans want? ‘Cause someone is seriously mistaken… either Dan doesn’t understand what the folks back home want as much as he thinks he does, or Corbin doesn’t really “get” what it is that they want (or Corbin knows but just doesn’t care).
So the survey was designed to put that proposition to the test.
Read the report, look at the questionnaire yourself. Questions are very purposely ordered and phrased in a way that is “fair” to “the other position” than that held by Dan.
Dan didn’t just want to craft a survey that would allow him to “win the poll” but would be dismissed as a “push” poll or as generating a fake result.
It’ll be interesting to see if whoever is currently in the field will be as transparent with their survey instrument.
My opinion is Dan is giving payback to Corbin. It seems to me that he should focus his efforts on 20 other Senators so that we can get some permanent property tax relief.
That, and to stop semi-endorsing school bonds with $100 million high schools loaded with olympic pools and concert halls.
Didn’t the House pass something a few years ago only to have it help up by the Senate?
re #4 “help” should be “held”
Corbin campaigned (actively) against Dan, so it’s natural people are going to assume the poll is about Dan “getting back” at Corbin.
Read the poll. The questions are fair. Corbin is out of touch.
That’s Corbin’s fault, not Dan’s.
Benzion - I see what you’re saying, I guess I just don’t pay close attention to District 7 politics. From the outside, it sounds to me like Dan is using all his media connections (LST included) to get his message out. I don’t blame him for that, it just sounds like a pretty small issue for multiple LST posts and the huge bolded front page headline.
raiderdav
thats cause Benzion OWNS LST and in the two three years I have been reading this
4 or 5 weeks of actually understanding it
This is the first time he has posted anything like this ever
I think this is an old fashioned grudge match and sour grapes. Dan should move on. Dan won his election and this poll, carefully worded by David Benzion, isn’t really bad news for Corbin.
You could just easily ask that opposing busting the spending cap is opposing the largest tax cut in Texas history — Corbin could use that in his poll? Is that equally fair or unfair? Who is Fletcher, heck, he lived in Montgomery County until he filed for this seat? Ummm, did Dan test that?
Does anyone think that the only shots that are going to be taken in this election are going to be taken by Dan and Allen F? I mean Dan is running this poll because Allen Fletcher can’t afford his own poll, right?
And, why should Corbin release his own poll? I’m still not following that one.
I don’t know anything about this guy, but this Blog post from Texas Monthly is relevant to this thread:
http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/2007/12/dan-patrick-jumps-into-district-130.php
#9 coldwater– the poll tested what the poll tested. The questions were worded fairly.
Your basic point, as I understand it, is that if Dan had tested other things, people would have said other things.
Perhaps. (Although that’s not certain.)
Regardless, Dan didn’t test those other things. If someone else wants to test those other things, they can. And if they share the other things that they tested, and share the results, then we can look at all the data and reason together to draw some conclusions.
There is nothing nefarious about any of this. In politics, one side has one view of reality, and tries to convince the voting public to agree with their understanding. The other side has their own understanding of reality, and tries to get the voters to see things their way.
Eventually everyone decides who they believe, and on election day we find out who managed to persuade more people (and got them to the polls).
As for this not being bad news for Corbin… are you claiming this is GOOD news for Corbin? That he should be happy to learn that his favorability and job approval ratings are soft; that 8 in 10 voters can’t identify a single thing he’s done for them; that someone who is opposed to his reelection and owns a radio station has an 80% approval rating (55% “strongly” approve); that only 1 in 3 voters think he deserves reelection (before a SINGLE bit of even potentially unflattering information is presented); that his constituents are red-hot about property taxes, have almost no confidence they are going to get relief, and vehemently disagree with his votes on budgetary matters; this is all GOOD news for Van Arsdale?
Let me respectfully take a guess that you don’t have a lot of experience running political campaigns– because trust me, if I was Corbin’s consultant and was looking at this data (and the larger situation) from the other end of the telescope, I’d be terribly concerned.
Which doesn’t, btw, mean that Fletcher is going to win or that Corbin is going to lose.
It simply means that Van Arsdale is out of touch with his constituents on fiscal matters, that this fact makes him vulnerable to defeat, and that GOP primary voters are open to a credible alternative.
Maybe Fletcher is a credible alternative, maybe he isn’t. His task in this campaign is to persuade the voters of HD 130 that he is.
On Election Day, we’ll see if he and his team get the job done.
It’s great to see folks working so hard to change the status quo to put real conservatives in office.
I sincerely hope that people will also realize we have a very similar situation down here in district 129, where Jon Keeney is challenging encumbent John Davis. As with Van Arsdale, Davis supported the franchise tax. Davis has dragged his feet on appraisal caps. He talks a good game in his campaign materials, being always seems to hold the line in Austin in favor of the Fred Hill and the lobbyists.
Jon Keeney seems to be the real deal, but is obviously at a huge disadvantage against a well known encumbent like Davis. His website is vote4keeney.com. I encourage folks to check him out and, if you reach the same conclusion as I did, do whatever you can to help him win this race.
By the way, I’m not associated with his campaign in any way. I’m just a hardcore conservative precinct chair who is sick and tired of what we’ve been getting in Austin from so many of these so-called “conservative” republicans.
What dog does dan have in this hunt?
Dan’s dog (as I understand it) was stated well by DennisOnTheRight in #12–
“…to change the status quo to put real conservatives in office… sick and tired of what we’ve been getting in Austin from so many of these so-called ‘conservative’ republicans.”
Simple.
What exactly did dan accomplish his first year in Austin?
Yes, yes, we know, blah blah blah
I have asked this question a number of times, and no one seems to want to answer. What exactly did dan accomplish his first year in Austin?
David,
Just my observation and opinion. The more that you comment on behalf of Dan and the poll results may cause some people to question the work you did as an analyst on the poll. It seems to me a fine line between research and campaigning. Although you certainly have the right to (being managing editor of the blog, as well as an informed person)
Perhaps someone from Dan’s or Allen’s staff could weigh in?
#18 self-correction: Matt is the managing editor.
We keep asking the questions “Why do we keep getting the same status quo in Austin-Washington”
Why is the government not doing what “We the People” want”? From some of the commets here we now know why. You can put the information in front of some and they will only see what they want to see.
I don’t speak for Dan and I don’t speak for the Fletcher campaign.
Dan has a radio show from 4-6 pm; folks can call him at 281-588-5738 if they want his opinion.
The Fletcher campaign can be contacted here.
I have just two interests in all of this–
As an analyst at HRC, I’m going to explain the survey findings to the curious and defend the integrity of the poll against any detractors.
We don’t do B.S. polls. Period.
As owner and an editor on LST, I’m going to express my personal opinion about the race and the principles involved in these types of primary disputes.
If people want to question the work that I did on the survey, it isn’t enough to simply float theoretical doubts… they need to point to specific things, ask discrete questions, and allow me an opportunity to respond.
Otherwise, their opinions amount to little more than “Well, I don’t like the findings (or I don’t like the guy who paid for the poll) so I’m just going to assume the results aren’t true.”
And that isn’t going to cut it.
#11 Benzion
I understand that I don’t have as much experience in polling as you do (because you do it for a living), but I recall that Tony Sanchez ran a commercial against Governor Perry that said — “Can you name something RP has done as Governor?” Like every other pathetic Sanchez ad, it failed to hit the mark.
When you say you don’t do B.S. polls, then I commend you. This poll may not be “B.S.” but it isn’t balanced.
If what you meant to say is that you don’t do push polls, then good by you. However, I don’t think that asking questions where they are clearly meant to hurt Corbin’s position (without testing what Corbin would probably say in response is where the poll is inaccurate). Do you see what I mean here? Of course you do, you are a pollster.
I have no doubt that Dan’s radio station gives him extra stature and exposure. Since Dan paid for the poll, I think #15 has a point. Can you name what Dan has done as a Senator? Can you name one thing? I don’t think standing next to a large stack of money might count as an accomplishment, in my opinion.
Now, Dan I bet is doing a fine job, but I couldn’t name something that he’s accomplished in his first session. Is that a reason to oppose Dan? Certainly not.
I think the best people who represent Texans always put their voters first. I suspect that Dan declaring war on a State Rep. in his own district is a bad idea. Corbin may not be perfect, but he’s no liberal.
Fletcher might be a good guy, but I don’t believe that he can make the case that he’s anything other than Dan’s science fair project against Corbin.
We can name two things Corbin did-
Voted for the margin business “income” tax
Voted for Metricula cards for illegals to get
Texas Drivers Licenses.
Let the people decide on whether they support those two votes.
#22 coldwater– good observations all.
True, the poll isn’t “balanced” in the sense that it measures all issues from every angle. It was crafted to examine certain particular questions… but it DOES go about measuring public opinions on those questions in a way that is fair.
Surveys such as this cost $2.25 cents per minute of completed interview, can take up to 10 minutes to complete, and require a sample size of at least 300 to be scientifically valid.
If you want to cut me a check for $6,750 dollars, I will be more than happy to help craft, field, and analyze a survey that examines questions that are of interest to you.
All of this goes back to my “two competing narratives” point in #11.
I don’t doubt Corbin Van Arsdale has his side of the story. It looks like he’s in the field right now, testing how to most persuasively tell it.
I hope whoever is doing his polling eventually releases the data, to the same degree of transparency that I was able to persuade Dan to. I love this stuff. I’d love to be able to hold the two polls up side-by-side and debate what strategic insights and conclusions can and should be drawn from them.
As for the “accomplishment” question… keep in mind, that is an open-ended question that allows for “soft” answers…. incumbents get “credit” in the survey for answers like “He seems nice” and “He tries hard” and “I saw him in a parade once.” That all counts in the data as an “accomplishment”.
Bottom line– 84% of the voters couldn’t even rise to THAT level of giving Van Arsdale credit for something. We’re not talking about building the pyramids here.
The conclusion I draw from that (and advise my clients of) is that the incumbent is largely a blank canvas in the minds of voters. Their ballot support is largely a function of larger forces (popularity of the legislature, mood for change, frustration with issues like taxes, partisan enthusiasm, etc.)
None of this is unusual. It’s why incumbents spend so much money on ads and mailers around election time… to remind (and frankly, inform) voters that they actually HAVE done something worthy of their vote.
Unfortunately for Van Arsdale, his blank canvas might get filled-in by an “artist” (Dan) with a “paint brush” (KSEV, mail, personal appearances in the district) and an image that people like (insane personal favorability ratings, overwhelming agreement on budgetary issues).
Sucks to be Corbin.
Just to answer your question specifically… I doubt very highly that most (even many) of Dan’s constituents could identify a bill or a legislative objective that he’s accomplished… but if tested, I suspect you’d get a whole heck of a lot of “He tell’s the truth” or “He fights for me” or “He’s my Voice” or “He drives those bastards up in Austin nuts”.
In the context of political polling, that’s all considered an “accomplishment” and a good enough reason for many voters to pull the lever for you again.
You certainly wouldn’t get an 84% blank slate…
I should also add, I DON’T think Dan’s endorsement alone, or even any activities undertaken by Dan on behalf of Fletcher will be enough to oust Corbin.
Dan’s involvement will mean that Fletcher gets a look, gets an opportunity to introduce himself to the voters, gets a chance to make his case. That’s all stuff most challengers are usually very hard-pressed to do.
But ultimately, voters are going to judge Van Arsdale, evaluate Fletcher, and decide which choice they prefer. Their preference may be positive (”I love this guy!”) or negative (”Not THAT knucklehead!”), but it will be up to Fletcher and Van Arsdale to make their case.
Dan’s involvement evens the playing field… but it is up to Fletcher and his team to close the sale.
I was that caller,
The pole as such was just corbins group to react to the pulbic info message from Dan Patrick.
they tried to defend each and ever Point brought up.
example. the reason he missed votes is he was so busy with 4 commitee appointments.
however all if not most congress and senators are appointed to multiple commitee and are very busy.
example. the reason he voted for the Vantriquler (sp) card is so that Illigals could get a Driver licence and be able to idienitify their nationality.
BS. arrest and deport when they apply of a DL.
in short they know they have a huge problem and Corbin is not part of the solution
#24
Well, I am baffled by the idea that “I saw him a parade” could count as an accomplishment. I guess that I’d have to take your word for that. I kinda mistrust all polls after what happened in New Hampshire among the Democrats a few night ago. How did a 10 point lead turn into a 4 point defeat? Dang it Clintons. You have to admit they crying thing worked. I hope it is not back to the bad old days.
The Corbin/Flatrick race is bound to get nasty because it appears that Dan is deeply invested in seeing Corbin defeated. Given that many other Republican State Reps voted to “bust” the spending cap or (for Corbin’s defenders) voted for the largest tax cut in Texas history. Why is Corbin the object of Dan’s ire? From what I’ve been told it is because he endorsed John Nixon in the Senate race against Dan.
I saw the movie on cable a few month ago - it was called “The Grudge” it pretty much sucked. I doubt the sequel here in Harris County will be any better.
What if Dan spent his money trying to help defeat Democrats rather than other Republicans. God forbid.
coldwater… your characterization of what’s motivating Dan in all of this is highly uncharitable.
Here’s the facts as I understand them; correct me if I’m wrong.
(a) All of Corbin’s constituents are also constituents of Dan (SD7 entirely overlaps HD130)
(b) Folks sent Dan to Austin to be their “voice” and also to be their “eyes and ears,” watching out for their interests and letting them know back home if something is going wrong up in Austin
(c) On some EXTREMELY important budget votes, Corbin was the ONLY House Rep with constituents Dan shares who voted in a manner that, in Dan’s judgment, wasn’t the fiscally conservative position he THOUGHT the folks back home wanted their elected officials to vote.
(d) This, btw, is the reason why the survey asked about the breaking the spending caps and approving the business tax. Because Dan THOUGHT he knew what position folks back home held, but he was OPEN to the idea that maybe he was wrong and Corbin was right. (Or maybe the results would come back split, or muddied, so it would be reasonable for an elected official to vote the way Corbin did and think they were reflecting the will of the people.)
(e) Look at the results. It’s not even close. HD 130 GOP primary voters VEHEMENTLY disagree with Van Arsdale’s positions on those votes. The overwhelmingly hold the position that Dan thought they did.
(f) How is letting his constituents know that one of their elected officials is voting so blindingly contrary to their wishes constitute a “grudge”?
(g) Should Dan be aware of this information but just keep it to himself, in order to be “polite” and not step on the toes of another politician?
(h) Corbin is a big boy… Dan can criticize him and Van Arsdale can explain why Dan’s wrong and he’s right, and the voters can decide for themselves who they believe.
Please! If we do what we have always done we will get what we always had. We have been electing RINOs based on what the told us they did for the last 20 years.
How’s that been working for you?
I don’t know about you, but I am sick and tired of my taxes going up, while the quality of services goes down and the machine of government gets bigger. . I worked for the federal government for 11 years. It is about the spending. It is about the waste. Even in the DOD. Even during a war. The state has the same problem.
It is clearly time to get outside of the old habits and stop voting for RINOs. I applaud Dan for ending this stupid tradition of being “polite” and staying out of the 130 race. If Dan knew that one of your employees was lying to you and had arranged things so that you would lose money, would you want him to be “polite” and stay out of it?
CORBIN VA IS YOUR EMPLOYEE! Deal with it the way you normally would. Terminate and replace.
What do we have to do to get some help replacing Sen. Tommy Williamsn (RINO), The Woodlands?