Talk about about being kicked when you are down. just when the Republican party needs incumbents to stick around, the moderate wing of the party seems to be leaving in in droves.
Five more Republicans join exodus from House of Representatives
Five more long-serving Republican congressmen have confirmed they will not run for reelection this year, in a week of retirements capped by the announcement Wednesday by Representative Tom Davis, a former top leader in the House of Representatives when it was under Republican control. The retirements bring the number of Republican incumbents who will not be on the ballot in November to 28 out of the 200 elected only 14 months ago. This compares to only six Democrats who will not be seeking reelection, greatly increasing the number of open seats that are more vulnerable to takeover by the other party.
I just noticed that the story above came from the World Socialist Web Site. That does not detract from the truth of the story. For those that do not want to get their eyes dirty going there, maybe the links below are more palatable.
House Republicans Face Late Exodus
A wave of late-breaking retirement announcements have left beleaguered House Republicans swamped in recent days as five members have told House leaders they will not seek re-election this Fall. The announcements bring to 27 the number of open seats Republicans will have to defend throughout the year, and some believe the end is not yet in sight.
In the past week alone, Reps. Jim Walsh, Ron Lewis, Dave Weldon and Tom Davis have all announced they will not seek another term next year. Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof, who represents a district just north of St. Louis, said he will run for governor, a seat that came open when incumbent Republican Matt Blunt surprised political observers by withdrawing after just one term.
GOP Retirements Make Dems Giddy - And Donors Angry
(The Politico) Williamsburg, Va. - A spate of Republican retirements in the last week has buoyed House Democrats who are gearing up for the first defense of their majority since bouncing Republicans from power in 2006.
Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told members Wednesday night that the field of competitive races has expanded to almost 70 seats, the overwhelming majority of which are currently occupied by Republicans.
(SNIP)
Many of the retirement decisions were so abrupt that the lawmakers were still accepting campaign checks from corporations, colleagues and private citizens as late as the last week in December, according to Federal Election Commission data.
Tom Davis and the ‘Dying Breed’ of Moderates
What’s behind the exodus of centrists? Part of it can be explained by the pressures of constant campaigning. Most moderate Republicans reside in swing districts, so they have to raise money constantly and fight to stay alive every two years. The decennial redistricting process often results in the dismemberment of these kinds of districts, so some centrists could find themselves running in unfamiliar territory in 2012. And they regularly encounter primary challenges from conservatives, sometimes backed by well-funded groups like the Club for Growth.
But disillusionment in the moderate GOP ranks goes beyond their re-election worries. Since the party took power in 1994, the House Republican Conference has been dominated by conservatives. Many centrists believe there is a glass ceiling for them within the party, and that their leaders too often push them into taking tough votes.
The point is that these retirements come when the Republican party needs unity amongst the elected ranks in case Hillary or Obama becomes the next President of the United States. But like cowards, these Congressmen now find themselves in the minority and decide to take an early leave. I would have thought that with the pending nomination of either Romney or McCain as the Republican Party Presidential Candidate these guys would have stayed around. I suppose not.
Many of you know my feelings towards the Republican party, not amiable at all, but I must say that I have a glimmer of hope for the party knowing that there are some “Conservative” members of the party that “forced” these guys into taking “tough votes”. Maybe, just maybe, there is some hope that the Republican Party can return to the “Party of Reagan“. But then again, that depends on what ”We The People” demand from our elected representatives.
Note: Please do yourself a favor and follow the last two links.
(Cross posted from Squawkboxnoise.com)
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If they can be replaced by conservatives, so much the better, but I’m afraid those positions will be filled by democrats…
Agree with golfer, but ever the optimist, would like to think people will step up to run. Now, I still see, especially with this news, that my suggestion yesterday in the OC, separation and forming of the Conservatve Party, may bethe alternative to trying to get the Party of Reagan back.
3. Excellent last two links Squawk. Worth waking up early for and timely reminders.
Bravo, Bravissimo
So, we are loosing moderates. Maybe the reason is wrong. Maybe the conservatives are sick of them, and the reps know it. We’ve been giddy when certain state reps don’t run again. It’s up to these states to find good conservatives, or if these states want to give it to the dems, so be it. ( I consider a moderate republican to compare to heart burn or sour stomache.)
Now just because the MSM and allied libs are trying to discourage conservatives by trumpeting this news, we should swallow it? Hello? Ever think that conservatives in other states are livid over their RINOs and are targeting them in primaries as we are? And the RINOs see the villagers approaching with pitchforks?
And democrat incumbents aren’t being targeted for defeat? Nick Lampson would love that to be the case.
The first step to becoming a doormat is to LIE DOWN. Join the villagers, work for RINO opponents and then vote.
AW, we’re on the same wavelength today.
The political reality for the Republican Party is similar to the one faced by the Democratic Party after the Republican takeover in 1994. The seismic shifting of ideological tectonic plates continues slowly. Many of the old, southern and midwestern conservative Democrats were forced out of office in the 1990s, 2000 and 2002. They were not welcome in their districts or in their party.
The idea a Republican has managed to survive, for 20 years, in a place like Syracuse, New York is a feat unto itself. The re-alignment of the parties since WWII has been a slow, arduous process and largely unrecognized. The delineation of the Parties’ basic principles and the vacating moderate Republicans are a result of what began taking form in 1980 with the election of Reagan.
The Democratic Party continues to be in upheaval over what they believe and the alleged resurgence of the “new democrat” is pretty bogus. Reid and Pelosi run the party and creatures like them will continue into the forseeable future. There is no room for the old time Democratic dealmakers like Sam Rayburn, Carl Albert, Scoop Jackson and Tip O’Neill.
The Republicans will have to give up those seats in primarily eastern urban and suburban districts if they don’t want to allow room for reps who can make compomises with their hostile and liberal constituencies. They will have to pick up more seats in the South and West to replace those lost to these marginally conservative areas.
What we will see in the future is a more liberal Democratic Party, a more Conservative Republican Party and very little overlap as in the past. I believe that is a good thing and bodes well for healthier debate and governance in the future.
Finally, what none of the articles Squawk cites bothered to mention is the new restriction coming into effect after this year. Lawmakers cannot retire and go straight into lobbying positions anymore. Contrary to what most people believe, unless one is quite corrupt, being a member of Congress is not a road to riches. Being an ex-member-of-Congress lobbyist, with a high six figure income, is a pretty good start down that road. It was pointed out in the first article that none of these men were retiring of old age. True, however, they have all reached the point in middle age where they have to make life changing decisions about their future and the economic welfare of their families. The temptation must be great if you are in their position.
Texpat, a thoughtful commentary indeed. Really big point is the new regulation regarding lobbying capability after retirement.
I agree with Adee, Texpat and had forgotten the new law. It will be interesting to see what happens in the future, when the road to riches becomes a less clear path.
I give your thought all of my hope and desire, TexPat–that we’ll become more a Conservative Party again, but it looks like to me the opposite is happening with McCain garnering so much support–that tends to make me think that the party is trending moderate to liberal.
Kent
The RNC is trying to hold onto power in the wrong way. They are in somewhat of a trap of their own making. The Conservative base of the party has not fundamentally changed, but they made the wrong assumption the people running the party were their brothers in arms. They are not and haven’t been.
The people running the Party, day in and day out, are largely a reflection of George W. Bush. They believe in big government, right wing style. Their passion for the Second Amendment is muted and hazy, border security is annoying, etc. Anyone who thought, in 2000, they were getting a conservative president in GW Bush was indulging in very wishful thinking. I have supported his efforts in the WOT and military affairs, but have always prayed the damage he would do domestically would be limited. I never thought he would be able to turn the RP into such a shambles. Obviously, the answer to my prayers was no.
Texpat
Oh it came to my mind about the lobby law. Can you say Trent Lott.
It just amazes me how I am told that the Republican party needs to move to the left to be winners. Interesting don’t ya think all this row about the Republican candidates not being conservative and most of the “defections” are from the moderate wing of the party? /Just a thought.
I could go into a long rant but won’t. Cowards aptly describe these people and I will not make excuses or explain away their actions. I more than made the point I wished to make in my last paragraph of my story.
12&13: Tewx & Sqauwk: you see my absolute confusion and frustration (which led to my suggestion/plan yesterday out pure desperation). I know that the core of us are the conservatives, but how are we to re-take our party, if the elite, PTB and MSM won’t let us be heard. My Conservative Party plan was a suggestion to get the attention of these +ssholes and let them know ta we are sick to death of being drug to the left.
I too was a big GWB supporter–still am in WOPT. etc. cases.
So, TP, how do we let them know that we’re not kidding–that what Rush, Laura, Ann, and us un-voiced folks don’t wupport or want McCain–obviously, outside of the Primary or cards, letters, emails, phone calls, carrier pigeons, rocks thru windows and any other myriad of communications that they ignore. If we showed them our iintent to separate and form a new party–maybe then they’d get the message with a mass desertion of their power–ie: We the People…
Kent
You write (not email) to all “things” Republican
You fax (not email) to all “things” Republican
You call (not email) to all “things” Republican
You go visit your local all “things” Republican
You go to meetings all “things” Republican
You return all request for donantions with a polite letter explaining why you are disatisfied
and as best you can, you enlist your friends, family, acquaintances, enemies, com padres, passing friends etc.
You do it politely (not like I do here on LST) and with respect.
Then after you have done all these things above send them the very occasional email.
The first time I met one my State Reps I went to his office with 2 cups of coffee, one for him and one for me and met him in the parking lot as he came to work. Got five minutes of sit down time. This after being turned down several times for an audience with his highness. The man now knows my face and name.
When the old ways don’t work you create new ways to contact these people. I spend maybe 10 minutes of my day bugging them every work day.
Ya just don’t stop.
texpat
Is it possible these folks have feathered their nests with no need to start lobbyin? They seem to find loopholes no matter what the circumstance.
Squawk
Cowardice, no doubt, played a large part in these decisions. I won’t say everyone of them acted out of it because I don’t their personal situations. Accepting donations knowing you are going to retire is not good public relations, but the flip side of this coin is more than a few of these guys leave office still carrying campaign debt so I may not condone it, but do understand their motives.
From my vantage point on the East Coast, I see what some of these Republicans here have to do just keep a razor thin margin for re-electability. It ain’t pretty and that is why I say it is a core existential choice for the Party to say to them you can no longer make those compromises with your local devils. The RP will give up those seats for the near future and yet they have to realize it will be necessary to gain them elsewhere if they want to regain the majority. It takes a whole new strategy.
It is also simple reality to look at the demographics of your district, current polling and analysis and see there is no way you will be re-elected. If you don’t have inherited wealth or independent income, 2 kids in college, a wedding soon to pay for and not enough money in savings, the temptation is very strong to bail out. The call to duty and the state of the nation may not win out in that personal equation for some of these guys.
I remember when a key conservative White House policy adviser, a rising star, in the Bush the Elder’s administration quit. He was just over 40, made less than 75K/yr., had to maintain 2 households, had 3 kids (2 in college) and could no longer afford to stay there. He wasn’t a congressman, but my point is that you cannot ignore the fact that many of these people actually do make real personal sacrifices to work in DC. It ain’t all limos and champagne and they have lives to live and families to worry about, just like you and me.
We don’t disagree. I’m just trying to offer some different perspectives.
TP–not to be negative–with this virtual wall to break thru, ie: a conservative to beat a liberal/moderate in the same type district, how will we get them to win–you say pick up elsewhere, but those are ours anyway unless gerrymandering (sp?) developes a new district.
#16 DJ
Not all congressmen are Jack Murthas. In fact, most of them are not.
Many of these guys, particularly ones who live far from DC, share small apartments with several other congressmen because they can’t afford to support 2 households. DC used to be a fairly inexpensive place to live, but not anymore, not even remotely.
There was a great story years ago in Texas Monthly about the conservative white Jack Fields and very liberal black Mickey Leland. They both went to Congress the same year and decided to share a very tiny apartment in DC together because neither one could afford to bring their families up there. Both had several kids and a household to support back in Houston. They had a close friendship even though they came from opposing philosophies.
#18 Kent
If the demographics of a district are trending against you, it is often a better deployment of your resources to choose a marginal district where the trends are running your way. It is happening all over.
One of the things happening in New England and the Northeast is the loss of population to other parts of the country. In 2010 redistricting, there will be districts and congressman lost from these regions and gained to the Sunbelt. The likelihood is the districts which elected Republican reps in the past will be diluted with more liberal constituencies. That is a reality we can do nothing about. But it’s a big country west of the Delaware River and there is plenty of opportunity for us.
Purity Uber Alles! You live by the sword, you die by the sword. Welcome to the permanent Republican minority brought to you by DeLay and Rove. BTW, have you seen that DeLay is now a registered voter in TX again. I guess the Virginia thing didn’t work out too well.
#21 bbbar
There is one irrefutable, immutable truth about American politics:
Nothing is permanent.
Does anyone know what happened to Dan Patricks Town Hall meeting yesterday? There were a number of people including me that could not find it at the announced location and the contact number on the invitation was voice mail only.
Are we going back to pre-Reagan status of the GOP being comfortable as the definite minority party and “loyal opposition”?
Just what the heck did Reagan do that was so great? All this blather about what he did is more rhetoric than real substance. Any intelligent person knows that Reagan was a mere figurehead with the real power being wielded by the malignant, Rockefeller Republican, G. H. W. Bush and his cabal of crooked cronies.