I’m writing this post with brevity in mind because I am short of time, but this text and the accompanying chart are well done. I’ve taken this from the reliably cantankerous Libertarians at the thought provoking U.K. blog, Samizdata. I have been a loyal reader of theirs since 2001 and regard them as one of the last outposts of intelligent Western civilization on the British Isles. I don’t necessarily endorse his recommendations, but do think he is dead on with the analysis.
Midwesterner of Wisconsin posted the chart above and the text below on Tuesday, February 5th at Samizdata:
The swing voters are on the ends, not in the middle. Take a good look at this chart.
Notice that the Democratic voter turnout is a steady trend. Not Ross Perot or Ralph Nader appears to have affected the Democratic base turnout. It looks quite reasonable to interpret that third party candidates do not pick off Democratic voters, but rather people who otherwise would not have voted or would have voted Republican.
On the other hand, look at the Republican voter turnout. During a time when the Democrats went from 37.4 to 44.9 million in a trend that projects in both directions, the Republicans went from 54.5 to 39.1 million. The explanation is a simple one. The Republican party does not have a ‘base’. If they do, it is so small that it is below the radar.
Put another way, Democrats vote for their party come what may. Republicans vote, or very importantly stay home, based on the candidates and their principles, not party loyalty. This comment thread on Rachel Lucas with well over 400 mostly thoughtful comments shows the depth of the division. Even here on Samizdata there are commenters who say things like:
… “true” conservatives pi## me off. And if there is one thing I can count on, it’s that McCain will knee them in the nuts when needed. Who the hell do these self righteous a## hats think they are?
My answer? We are individuals. We vote with our mind, not ‘our’ party. And you will not win without us.
I said some time back that the only Republican candidate capable of winning the big race was Thompson. Obviously, I did not make that prediction based on poll numbers naming him as their first choice. I made that prediction based on the poll numbers that did not give him an absolute negative. Well, that and the obvious fact that the swing voters are on the ends, not the middle. Had he been the Republican candidate, a popular majority would almost certainly have found him to be the preferred candidate. No other candidate can avoid the rejection of substantial numbers of voters that the RNC claims are Republicans. Because Republican strategists are forgetting something. Many of ‘their’ voters do not belong to the Republican party. We belong to ourselves. And that is how we vote. If Fred is still on the ballot in your state, it is not too late to vote that way.
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38 Responses to “Swing Voters Not In The Middle”Search
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Will fear of muslim terrorism, demoncrat socialism and high taxation be enough to turn out Republican voters?
The middle class loses with both parties it seems.
A fear based campaign may work but the hate of government will continue.
Look at the trend line of Democratic voter turnout for 24 years, from 1980 to 2004. It is steadily rising from 37M to 55M. The comparative turnouts on the Republican side reveal a stark difference depending on the candidate and circumstances at the time.
Texpat,
Last time I looked…it was the Republican voters and not “stratagists” that casts votes in the primaries that ultimately led to Thompson’s defeat.
Democracy is like a sausage factory. It makes a tasty product in the end, but the process is sickening to watch.
Simple
2, Barry
The campaign with the most uplifting and positive message will likely win this year.
Iraq and the WOT is a broken record that does not play well with the electorate. It would be better to find a tune that everyone can enjoy.
Simple
#4, I think I would have to modify the statement…
It was decided by a minority of Republicans that are in all likelihood not conservative.
Simple
I am not seduced by happy tunes or positive messages. I prefer a message that is real, and that addresses real issues with real,workable solutions. I want a candidate that builds those solutions around principles that reflect my values as a conservative. It may not be “happy” or “uplifting”; I anticipate that the next “real conservative” will have to some Gregorian chant before a pop tune occurs.
Unfortunately, most of the electorate are willing to dance to whatever tune makes them feel happy at the moment. “Everyone” can dance to that, and I’ll watch the bad guys sneak in the back door and take over.
I dance to my own *(^! tune, thank you.
/sits alone in the corner
Will Thompson even be in the ballot in Texas? I’m not clear about that.
OK Texpat I looked.
All I see is a rant against “true” conservatives by the original author and that McCain is going to knee them in the nuts. That’s nice.
Once again I will point out to you that in 2006 Republicans lost because of the stay at home folks and folks that traditionally voted Republican throwing out the dead wood by voting for a Democrat that had a more conservative message, in other words “THE BASE”.
Through this primary McCain courted the “middle to left” vote and that wonderful land of independents. That is well documented. We will see how many of those people vote for him in the general, won’t we. Now that McCain has made his move to the “right” it will be right back to the middle to left with his message.
Enjoy the next four years. We are now down to Republican good Democrat bad voting, anyone but Hillary.
So I will focus my efforts on the down ballot candidates.
The big issue come November will be the economy. this stock market is getting sicker and when it does it will be the forefront!
#9 Squawk
Huh ?
The McCain/knee comment in the original piece I quote was made by a hostile commenter on their website. The guy from Samizdata is making the points you have been making all along. Look at the chart, for crying out loud. It proves out everything you have said about voter turnout. His contention is the swing voters for Republicans are not mushy undecided independents in the middle. He contends it is the most conservative and libertarian on the outer margins of the Party that make the difference. I think he’s right.
The stuff about Thompson is a side issue. The turnout trends are the meat of this thing. Those are the facts in the chart and they bear out YOUR opinions.
I didn’t go to the link, but did look at the chart and the quoted statements. I don’t know if he’s right about where swing voters are, but I would say that the chart in no way supports his statement that the Republicans have no base. That’s just a strange statement based on nothing as far as I can tell.
Rick
His “no base” comment was strange, but he does make a very good point about voter turnout and loyalty there. I wanted add some analysis and better flesh out some things he merely touched on, but I really have to leave right now. I’ll update it later.
My bad Texat. I read that out of context.
Sorry,
/hangs head in total shame and embarrassment.
I intend to vote for first choice Fred in the primary, as a write-in if his name has been removed from the ballot. Would have voted for second choice Romney had he not suspended his campaign. And then I intend to go down the line voting for the most conservative (and sane) candidates in hopes of dumping as many RINOs as possible in the primary.
We must keep the Dem gains to a minmum in the House and Senate. With thin margins, the Dems can still be bottled up as they have been since 2006.
Texpat, Thompson is on the sample ballot. It really pi$$es me off that 4 states determined the field that I can vote for. The guy hit the nail on the head - if Thompson’s on the ballot, he gets my vote. My conscience will be clear, I will have supported the most conservative candidate. Come the general, I may be one of those that helps usher in the start of the Democratic Party’s next demise - their guy/gal in the White House. Worked in ‘94 with Clinton1.
When Bush2 came into office, we had the Dims on the mat at about a 9 count. GWB and his brand of compassionate conservatism along with a weak Hastert and conservative talk radio enemy Armey let those libs up off the mat and they proceeded to take us out.
So what he is saying is that the democrat voters are mind numb robots that will vote for whomever the party throws their way.
Lawrence
Nice summary.
When Bush2 came into office, we had the Dims on the mat at about a 9 count. GWB and his brand of compassionate conservatism along with a weak Hastert and conservative talk radio enemy Armey let those libs up off the mat and they proceeded to take us out.
As I see it, most conservatives “think” therefore we do not follow the crown and “block vote”
We also get ticked off and dont vote which is like cutting off our nose to spite our face. the current batch of pol’s do not listen to us - then we need to get louder and louder - we need to9 kick em where it hurts and cut off all funding to the GOP maybe and endorse FUND and vote for a third party candidtae of our own choice. But he would need our funding foremost or we are again just wasting our efforts.
With mccain we see we can not even weed out the bad apples in the primary unless we take dirastic measures earier and find, run and FUND a real - a true conserative
Where is Edd when we need him??? HENDEE and his mouthy side kick for pres and vice!
The leaderless Republican Party will likely take a beating in November. We Conservatives are still debating whether to start a Conservative Party out of the dying GOP. Not arguable is that the RNC is brain dead. The pending nomination of McCain indicates that the GOP is in the same state of rot that the Whigs were in 1852.
I will vigorously support down ballot candidates that support the same conservative, Christian, patriotic goals that I do.
I will not vote for RINO McCain. He thinks that we are psychotic right wing evangelicals. So be it! To hell with him! .
Saying the right things and publishing “white papers” that speak wonderful leadership is not a leader it is a professor, FWT much to the unhappiness of Republicans and Conservatives alike is not a leader. Mitt has been honing his message and pretty much saying the same things he has been saying, - 5/12/07 “The right course for America in a world where evil still exists is not acquiescence and weakness, it is assertiveness and strength,” - he did not assert himself in the early debates loosing much free TV. John McCain distorted Romney’s positions then lied about them two days before voting in Florida disallowing Mitt opportunity to properly respond, and Huckabee turned free TV into a capital asset splitting the Conservative vote.
Intelligence is not requisite to being a conservative, a firm set of principles is.
McCain is now the prohibitive nominee and Reasonable Republicans treat Conservatives as the Democrats treat blacks. We are shamed into voting for the good of the party that really cares about our concerns and will work for Conservatives ideals, ‘here’s a crust of bread now shut up and go home’.
#21 Nat
If it wasn’t for judicial appointments, I might even skip the box. I have no illusions whatsoever I would get all but table scraps (if that) from a McCain administration. I am willing to gamble that I might get a couple of decent SCOTUS justices out of the deal and hopefully some good appellate judges on the bench. If that makes me a single issue voter in some dimly lit minds, then so be it.
McCain’s one golden opportunity to make peace with the Conservative Movement and our libertarian leaning allies was at C-PAC yesterday. I saw he has no intention of sincerely trying to unite the Right. It is ALL about John, always has been and always will be. He is the most self-centered, egocentric candidate the GOP has nominated in my memory.
DJ #17, that is exactly right. Dems will vote for any old scum because that’s what they support. It’s why I reject the idea of “good Dems”. Bill Clinton committed treason, rape, sexual assault, indecent exposure, perjury, fraud, witness tampering, was impeached and disbarred. And they still love him. Add to him William Jefferson, Gerry Studds, Barney Frank, Diane Feinstein, Dirty Harry…it’s proof that Dems will elect any old scum and they have zero moral compass.
However, McCain is what we are left with in this election. It is up to us to get him in over the Dems, and then to be loud enough long enough. Holding their feet to the fire, and in the mean time work down ballot to get better future leaders. Putting our heads in the sand and going lalalalalalalalala is going to get us nowhere. We need to be all the louder and forciferous in our actions from the House and Senate on down. If we don’t, we can blame nobody but ourselves. We’ve already shown it can be done with the pressure that was applied on the amnesty bill. Now lets get with it.
McCain thinks I’ve got no where else to go, and he’s right, so he thinks he can treat the conservatives just like the Dems treat the blacks, by tossing a crumb every now and then and knowing they will vote for them anyway. I think he may have miscalculated though - I for one am tired of the “lesser of 2 evils” and holding my nose to vote. No mas. Let that selfish old bastard and his dope stealing wife go back to Arizona and grow pot or something.
Rastus, I feel your pain. So many of us are shaking our heads that our panties best would be the man Kerry thought to have as his running mate! I am still laughing. However, Hillary Clinton or Obama, are too scary for me to just ignore. The only way I know to fix this smelly problem is to start at state level and cull the rinos. I am learning political hoodwinks, and think I will vote Hillary in primary and republican in the election.
#26 Lol! “Our panties best??????” “A smelly problem????” Sorry, that tickled my funny bone….
(Laughing WITH you AW, not at you!) Smooch!
OK, so let me get this straight,
We DON’T want McCain because he refuses to compromise his principles and say what we think we want to hear, but Romney was suspect because we thought he was just saying what we wanted to hear……
Look folks, McCain isn’t even in the same ballpark as perfect. But, he’s a damn sight better than the Democrat choices. I would say that anyone who assists Hillarama by not voting deserves what they get, but the truth is, you’re helping to inflict them on me.
Don’t like the Republican choice? Fine, 4 years for now come up with a better on and work to make him/her stick. In the meantime, swallow a little bit of your ire and start supporting McCain before it’s too late.
It’s not my fault. BigJ had to post that darned sex thing on the other thread…….. I am innocent I tell ya, innocent!
#28 It’s not that Sen McCain refuses to compromise his principles - it’s that he doesn’t have any. the rest of your arguments I’ve hear for the past umpteen elections, and I’m just not buying any more. I agree to get to work on locating suitable replacements and working hard on the down tickets candidates.
Rastus, I would never argue with you to prod you to do anything different. I understand, honest. Yep, I think the cure for this is starting with the lowest level. These guys go from state to federal. The federal retirement package is just too attractive lol
I’d take you guys a lot more seriously if I didn’t honestly believe if Reagan himself was running today, he’d be getting thrown under the bus by the same crowd.
Fact is, the President is a bad choice to demand such a high degree of ideological purity from, especially when we can’t even get it from many of our local and state representatives.
Personally, I think Ann Coulter put our voting options into perfect perspective:
If Hillary is elected president, we’ll have a four-year disaster, with Republicans ferociously opposing her, followed by Republicans zooming back into power, as we did in 1980 and 1994, and 2000. (I also predict more Oval Office incidents with female interns.)
If McCain is elected president, we’ll have a four-year disaster, with the Republicans in Congress co-opted by “our” president, followed by 30 years of Democratic rule.
There’s your choice, America.
Yep. I couldn’t have said it better. That’s our choice.
#33
That is the way I see it.
# 28
McCain has no principles. He was not very lucky in military service. He got luckier in politics and like John Kerry, his soul mate, married well (sarcasm) He reminds me of Benedict Arnold the traitor. — a traitor to language, culture and borders. No thanks for traitors. Real Conservatives do not vote for traitors.
I had an “Impeach Clinton” bumper sticker on my vehicle for two years [1999-2000]. I do not want to have to put “Impeach McCain” bumper stickers on my vehicles next year.
A huge consideration is the VP nominee. If it’s not a real conservative from a state that matters electoral vote-wise, we’ll know the party moguls aren’t serious about our views and McCain openly doesn’t care. Given his age and past history of melanoma (a deadly form of skin cancer), we need to know all about his health status. The VP selection should be someone ready to step in to the Oval Office if need be. Not to forget second runner-up in line is Nancy Pelosi (shudder).
Adee
I don’t think, and I have been wrong once or twice, that a VP choice is going to repair the damage. It would help, but I don’t think McCain’s performance at C-PAC was even adequate, much less constructive in uniting the many factions of the Right.
Texpat #36, I’m primarily concerned about the succession regardless of which conservative or maybe-conservative choice wins out for VP. McCain is oblivious to damage control being nedded. And you are correct that the C-PAC performance did nothing to heal the rift.
‘Twas reported I think on Laura’s show yesterday that Tom DeLay had attended and said the McCain faction “salted” the C-PAC audience with supporters to blunt the effect of boos they knew were coming when immigration and other leftie topics were mentioned. This would be no surprise.
Correction, needed