A Gallup poll of Democratic voters may provide real optimism about a McCain victory in the fall. It seems that the nomination fight has embittered supporters of both Hillary and Obama to the extent that they say they will bolt to McCain if their candidate is not nominated.
PRINCETON, NJ — A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
The poll finds that, if Obama is nominated, 28% of Hillary’s backers would defect to McCain. On the other hand, if Hillary gets the Dem nod, 19% of Obama supporters say they would cross-over to the GOP nominee.
These numbers are startling in that, given the closeness of recent Presidential elections, they would constitute more than enough votes to ensure McCain’s election.
However, reality and a healthy skepticism of all things political force me to take this poll with a grain of salt. First, any poll this far ahead of November is practically worthless. (Remember when Bush the elder was once deemed “unbeatable” in his run for reelection?) Second, I find it hard to believe that a HillObama Democrat would ever vote for the Republican candidate, regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination. Stay home? Maybe. Vote GOP? I don’t think so. Third, there’s always the question about how many of those polled would actually have voted - for anyone - in November anyway. Fourth, the Democrats have plenty of time to heal the wounds the candidates continue to inflict on each other. I fully expect the loser to rally around the nominee and try to ease the pain of his or her disappointed loyalists.
In the end, and even recalling Democratic defeats after nasty nomination battles in 1968 and 1980, the best McCain can probably hope for is that enough Democrats are alienated by the primary battles that they stay home, which, in itself, gives McCain an advantage.
But wouldn’t it be something if these numbers actually played out, and McCain ended up with a double-digit win in November? Stranger things have happened. Or have they?
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I tend to think that Hillary’s supporters tend to be a *little* more concerned with security than O’bama’s. This would imply that more of her supporters would switch sides if O’bama were to be the nominee.
What I don’t tend to agree with is the overall magnitude of the shift from say, Hillary to McCain. It could be significant, but what this poll is saying would be practically a stampede, which just wouldn’t happen to that degree.
1. NA
I agree with your last point. However, even a modest number of defections could be significant unless McCain is destined for a blowout win anyway, which I don’t really believe.
So if Al Gore steps in,
will all of Obama’s & Hillary’s supporters vote for McCain?
As long as we are speculating about this, shy not speculate REALLY BIG? What if the 28% actually do vote for McNuts and the R’s down ballot get the benefit? Could the R’s take back both houses and wouldn’t that be fun to watch the MSM wretch on their shirts :>)
Sorry shy not should be why not.
You expect Hillary to rally around Obama if he’s the nominee? I’ll believe it only when I see it (and even then, maybe not). I expect Hillary to do only those things that benefit Herself, the party (and country) be damned.
McCain-Liberman…that’s the ticket to ride…
4. Bonecrusher
Washing all that crying by network commentators down with an adult beverage would indeed be sweet.
McCain is playing to moderates and liberals. Read his foreign policy speech posted at open comments. He will close gitmo, banish torture, listen to both sides of the aisle, and let the other side convince him they are right if necessary. He will work on green house gas emissions, and global warming. blah blah.
I am not so sure. There are plenty of Republicans right here at LST who want to drive off the cliff over McCain. Why can’t the other side join in the fun??
#9 - It is my theory at this point that a true conservative cannot win running on a purely conservative platform. Too many people expect the Federal Government to give them “free stuff”.
Here’s hopin’ that McCain will win and disappoint the Left…
10.
Good point, but I hear the disgrunted Republicans threatening to skip the box, not vote for the Democrat.
I’m not voting for McCain. Disgruntled no. Fed up? yes. You vote for him and carry him over the top. I’ll vote down ballot. I assured him the same, when I received his money beg yesterday.
I actually have heard people threaten to vote for Hilary rather than McCain. What did Big45 say about cutting off a member because it was only mostly as effective as it used to be?
5
I dont know, “shy no” sounded pretty good to me.
11
Squawk with Thelma, Louise and others.
http://www.wheels-near-u.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/thelma-louise-mustang.jpg
I’ve been predicting this for a couple months now… Just ask Dr Whited, or Cory Crow.
First of all, there is NO WAY ON GOD’S GREEN EARTH that HELLary would support “BO” because his win would mean she couldn’t run again for eight years and then she would have to fight off the VP person for the party nomination. If she loses, she has to hope “BO” loses, too so she can claim what was “rightfully hers” in the first place.
And the switch over could happen under the scenario that the Dimwit that who loses has to have the Republican win so that the LOSER could run in four years.
Hillary Clinton has groomed herself to be president for a very long time. She has put up with nation embarrassment to achieve this goal. She is not going away. I believe, she will pull every trick, every tool she can find to achieve her goal. She already has said, the delegates do not have to vote by the primary, but can choose to vote for whomever at the convention. I cannot imagine what could happen to make her step away. Perhaps, some dirt that is so volatile, she cannot afford to have it aired could do it.
HELLary had better hope she gets the nomination in some logical, formula way or the Dimwits will lose the black support in the general election. Any “shady” deals will cause a landslide loss of epic proportions because a majority of the Dimwits will at least play fair. The more battered and bruised the Dimwit nominee is, the better John McCain’s chances of winning are.
It is so very long until Election Day in November that all kinds of surprises could pop up. Considering how bizarre things have been thus far on both sides, my best bet at the moment is the Sun will rise the the east tomorrow.
But for now it’s entertaining to play the what-ifs and watch the opposition forces attack each other. Waitin’ for Hillary’s Kitchen Sink II.
Try this Hill steels the super delegates.
O Hussain B says to Gore you want mine?
The super d’s change their minds and switch to the Goreacale? We lose!
Should have been B Hussain O
Sorry
I had predicted months ago that McCain may be able to win without the right. I believe that was his ’strateegery’ all along. Now with the exposure of the TV dinner media, today; we are only doing what they did all along too.
#22
rdwgsc
BHussainO might get burned.
Do ya’all think Al Gore could take it? wow, I figured McCain could knock him out of it.
We really won’t be able to answer this question until after the convention…..and depending on how many bodies need to be buried afterwards as well as the recovery for Denver and when the military ends martial law there.
27. Big
LOL. Where’s Abe Ribicoff when you need him?
Rick, are you talking about Dailey’s remarks regarding Ribicoff at the 68 Chicago convention?
29. Big
Exactamundo.
Abe: “If George McGovern were president, we wouldn’t have these Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago.”
Daley: “F— you, you Jew m—–f—–.” (Allegedly!)
Don’t you long for a good old fashioned Democratic Convention?
29 and 30
In fairness to Daley (is that really necessary?), he claimed to be calling Ribicoff a “faker.” Of course, this is the same mayor who said to his critics that there was a mistletoe hanging from his coattail. Colorful, at least!
Most politicians, regardless of party, we’ve found to have mistletoe on their coattails or in their back pockets. And the way they hand out our money, it’s no wonder they think it’s Christmas all year long.
Sen McCain plans to cater to the moderates in order to win the Presidency, and that’s who he’ll have to get the votes from, because I cannot be responsible for putting an untrustworthy globalist in that position. He is not catering to get my vote, and he will not get it, and he doesn’t care that he won’t get it because he has friends on the other side of the aisle. If he wins, the few remaining Rep’s in congress will have to knuckle under to his fruitcake ideas for party unity purposes while if a Dim is elected, they can at least fight. McCain is sounding more and more like John Kerry (who also served in Vietnam) every day, and today takes the cake.
#33 The best thing would be for the chunk of genuine R’s that remain is to “have a good talkin’ to McCain” and remind him of the gang of 14. The real R’s could form another ‘gang’ and keep him from doing anything truly stupid or globalist.